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Analysis: Bush's European charm offensive

By GARETH HARDING, Chief Europe Correspondent

BRUSSELS, Dec. 9 (UPI) -- Has peace broken out between the EU and the United States after several years of sniping over Iraq, climate change, the International Criminal Court and a host of other contentious issues? Listening to U.S. President George W. Bush and senior members of his administration, one could be forgiven for thinking so.

In his first press conference after winning a second term of office, Bush promised to "work through the NATO alliance and with the European Union to strengthen cooperation between Europe and America." Later he said: "All that we hope to achieve together requires that America and Europe remain close partners."

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Bush's first official visitor after his re-election was NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, closely followed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair. And the president's first overseas trip after his inauguration will be to Brussels on Feb. 22.

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Secretary of State Colin Powell laid the groundwork for this visit Wednesday in a wide-ranging foreign policy speech in the Belgian capital. "Whatever our differences about the past and about Iraq, we are now looking forward. We're reaching out to Europe, and we hope Europe will reach out to us," America's top diplomat told the German Marshall Fund organized event.

Speaking ahead of a meeting with European Union foreign policy chiefs in The Hague Friday, Powell delivered an unashamedly pro-EU speech that drew warm applause from the audience of students, policy analysts and journalists. "The United States has everything to gain from another capable, democratic partner in Europe. We have always supported European integration and we still do. We support the further expansion of the European Union. We want the European Union to develop its global presence, so that we will have the strong partner we need."

This is a far cry from the administration that during its first term attempted to divide Europe up in to "old" (anti-American) and "new" (pro-American) camps, that favored "coalitions of the willing" over tried and tested alliances like NATO and lashed out at EU founding members such as France, Germany and Belgium for opposing the Iraq war.

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But Powell's hymn to transatlantic cooperation is not just lofty rhetoric. The United States has let the EU play the lead role in persuading Iran to suspend uranium enrichment -- although the retired four-star general sounded a note of caution Friday, declaring that "suspension is not termination." On the Middle East, both sides believe in a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict -- although Brussels would like Washington to devote more attention to the issue. And on Ukraine, there is not a hair's breadth difference between the world's two strongest political and economic powers. "The Ukrainian and Russian authorities are hearing a clear message from North America and Europe, in diplomatic stereo," said Powell on his farewell tour of the Europe. "And that stereo sound makes a difference."

However, it would be naive to think that Bush has undergone some sort of Pauline conversion on Europe since winning a second mandate. The president has appointed Condoleezza Rice, who reportedly said the United States would "forgive Russia, ignore Germany, and punish France," as Powell's replacement -- a move that has met with little enthusiasm in European capitals. There are also few signs Bush will give ground on the Kyoto treaty on climate change, the International Criminal Court or the nuclear Test Ban Treaty -- global covenants supported by the EU but opposed by the United States.

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Other tensions linger. Washington wants European states to stump up more troops and trainers in Iraq and Afghanistan -- a point forcefully made by Powell at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers Thursday. It believes EU countries should shoulder more of their own responsibility for defense. "We must reverse the decline in defense budgets and manpower in some member states," said the Secretary of State Wednesday. "If we are going to take on these additional missions -- and we must -- then we must match that intention, match those words, with real capability." Finally, the U.S. government is fervently against the EU lifting the arms embargo slapped on China after the Tiananmen Square massacre 15 years ago.

The stark and unpalatable truth for Bush is that he probably needs Europe more than Europe needs the United States. The U.S. president is growing to realize that without EU support neither Iraq nor Afghanistan will become stable democracies, global trade liberalization talks will grind to a halt, hopes of achieving peace in the Middle East will be slimmer, the war against terrorism will be harder and his dream of a free and democratic Muslim world stretching from Casablanca to Kabul will remain just that.

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"Transatlantic politics has its blustery days, but the weather eventually improves," said Powell. "It is improving as I speak and will improve further when President Bush visits."

Most European policy makers expect EU-U.S. relations to get better in 2005. Speaking Thursday, German Foreign Minister Joshka Fischer said Bush's trip represented a "a chance for a new transatlantic consensus." But it will require more than charm offensives to win over some European leaders who feel hurt and humiliated by the way they were treated during the first Bush administration.

French President Jacques Chirac said last month the world was a more dangerous place as a result of the Iraq war. And on Thursday five NATO nations - France, Spain, Belgium, Germany and Luxembourg -- again refused to send troops to train Iraqi forces, despite Powell's arm-twisting. Warm words will clearly help improve transatlantic ties, but action -- on climate change, the Middle East and global poverty -- will help even more.

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