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Allawi insists insurgency on the wane

By PAMELA HESS, Pentagon correspondent

WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 (UPI) -- Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi insisted the vast majority of Iraq is safe and free of the insurgency that has killed more than 623 Americans since May 1, 2003 and at least 720 Iraqis in the last year.

He also insisted in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., that Fallujah "is the only city (in Anbar province) where there is an insurgency."

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U.S. military bases across Anbar province are regularly mortared and convoys are attacked with roadside bombs, rocket-propelled grenades or small arms fire almost daily across the province. More than 120 Marines have been killed in the region over the last six months, fewer than half of them in battles in Fallujah and Ramadi during an uprising in April and May.

Allawi also said that 14 or 15 of Iraq's 18 provinces have "no major problems, no insurgency problems."

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Allawi rejected an assertion that there had been major attacks on American forces in at least six of Iraq's 18 provinces in the last month, saying that the data was out of date.

"The rest of the country is by and large OK. It is not 100 percent, but it is OK," he said. "The insurgency is on the descent, not on the ascent," he said.

Statistics suggest something very different.

There were 37 Americans killed in action in Iraq in June. In July that number climbed to 43. There were 54 in August KIA and 863 wounded in action that month alone.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry made the rising tide of violence in Iraq a campaign issue this week.

"We are fighting a growing insurgency in an ever-widening war zone. In March, insurgents attacked our forces 700 times. In August, they attacked 2,700 times, a 400% increase, "Kerry told an audience at New York University Monday.

Allawi attributed the increase in violence to the success Iraqi and coalition forces are having against the insurgency, which is now "desperate," in his words.

"We are inflicting a lot of losses on Zarkawi and Bin Laden people," he said. "The surge in suicide bombers is really a direct response to the effectiveness" of Iraq's still fledgling security forces. "They are becoming more desperate. They are making their cards clear."

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Allawi blamed much of the insurgency on foreign fighters, most of whom he said had come into the country from Syria and Iran.

In that vein, he met recently with the president of Syria to get that government's cooperation in halting smuggling and illegal border crossings.

"We decided to speak to our brothers in the regime," he said.

Allawi told the Syrians, "Either we go back to Saddam's days or we try to make a safer region for everyone."

Allawi's message is simple: Any problem that occurs in Iraq has the potential to spill over its borders, so it is in his neighbor's interest to cooperate.

"We believe based on what we have now, the committees we have, the things are improving," he said of Syria.

U.S. military officials estimate the number of foreign fighters to be 10 percent or less of the insurgency, but know it to be an intractable force that is difficult to dissuade from fighting. Unlike Iraqis, who could ultimately benefit from having a stable country, the foreign fighters are bent on jihad with the American forces. They are also believed to be the perpetrators of the suicide bombs that have claimed so many Iraqi police recruits in recent weeks.

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Allawi said his emissaries have brought the same issue to Iran's leadership. He expects to meet the Iranian minister of foreign affairs at the United Nations Friday.

"If they are ready to agree, I will go there and we will conclude an agreement," he said.

Allawi said he is also making an international plea for debt forgiveness.

"The debt of Iraq is one of our headaches. We are trying to assess what kind of debts there are," he said. "You ought to stand with us to enable us to fight terrorism. You should give us the means to reinvest in our economy."

Allawi also discounted the possibility of a civil war, either before or after the scheduled elections in January.

"The notion of civil war does not exist in Iraq," he said.

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