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Analysis: Iran nuke resolution in dispute

By MODHER AMIN

TEHRAN, Sept. 16 (UPI) -- The text of a resolution to be concluded by Friday on Iran's nuclear program at the headquarters of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency has become a source of heated arguments among the parties involved.

With the United States pushing for a tough resolution that sets a deadline, as soon as Oct. 31, for Iran to fully suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment, some key European countries, like France and Germany, have taken a softer approach, focusing on engagement rather than confrontation with the Islamic republic.

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While Washington is seeking a "trigger mechanism" that would oblige the IAEA to take Iran before the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions if certain conditions were not met, the European trio -- Britain, France and Germany -- want the IAEA to give Iran until November to dispel suspicions about its nuclear intentions.

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The "big three" have already been involved in delicate negotiations to persuade Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Talking of the draft resolution in Brussels earlier this week, French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier did not rule out the IAEA bringing Iran before the Security Council if Tehran refused to cooperate.

"At that time (November), we will have various choices before us," he said.

"Either our concerns remain, and we will have the option of sending the case to the council, or -- as we hope and I hope -- Iran will show it can be trusted and the affair can be defused in Vienna (and not in New York)."

However, the agency's chief, Mohammad ElBaradei has cautioned against any imposed deadline, calling the investigation of Iran's nuclear dossier an "open

process."

"There is no artificial deadline whereby I can say in November, I can promise that everything will be completed," he was quoted as having told reporters earlier this week.

"Have we seen any proof of a weapons program?" he asked. "Have we seen undeclared enrichment? Have we seen undeclared material?"

Calling the investigation "very complex," ElBaradei added, "Obviously, on these issues until today, there is none of that, but are we in a position to say that everything now is peaceful? Obviously, we are not at that stage."

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ElBaradei said he was ready to give an "evaluation" to the IAEA board of directors that would probably enable it to decide on a deadline, "but I am giving advance warning that this will not be the end of the story."

The U.N. watchdog agency has been carrying out a 19-month-old probe of Iran's nuclear program to find out whether the clerical regime is secretly trying to build a nuclear weapon, an attempt the United States says it is convinced of.

Iran equally rejects the allegation, saying it is pursuing nuclear technology only for peaceful purposes -- including generating electricity -- and that, moreover, Islam forbids the use of nuclear bombs.

On a visit to Israel on Sunday, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said his country was "determined" to stop Iran from achieving a nuclear weapons capability. He said the United States sought a peaceful solution, however, hinting that all options remained open.

The representatives of the Non-Aligned Movement nations at the 35-member IAEA board have firmly supported the European position, with Malaysia's IAEA Ambassador Hussein Haniff saying, "they (the NAM members and the Europeans) do not want to see a trigger mechanism because that is pre-emptive, pre-judging a conclusion."

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Haniff added the IAEA should work from reports by ElBaradei and "there is nothing in the report that calls for Iran to be referred to the U.N. Security

Council."

But some Western diplomats close to the IAEA believe differently, with one saying, "It is not a trigger; it is setting a date to take stock," and another talking of the need to "send a signal to Iran that this process is not going to go on forever."

Iran's Mehr News Agency Wednesday quoted an informed source at the IAEA as having said that China had been disturbed by the "politically motivated tough position" toward Iran's nuclear program, with a warning for Washington that it would veto any decision on Iran if Iran's nuclear dossier were forwarded

to the Security Council. The quote was widely welcomed by part of Iranian press on Thursday.

Iran, however, seems to remain defiant in regard to its sensitive part of nuclear program, namely, the fuel-enrichment cycle.

The influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani vowed Wednesday his country would resist international efforts to prevent the Islamic republic from mastering advanced nuclear technology.

"The Europeans and the Americans say with determination that Iran must not master nuclear technology and we respond with determination ... that we will not renounce our legitimate right," he said, quoted by the student news agency ISNA.

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Referring to a draft resolution by the Euro 3, he said, "The United States and Europe say the same things, and there will be a lot of problems in the future."

The head of the Iranian delegation to the IAEA, Hussein Mousavian, also warned Tuesday that his country would not agree to an unlimited suspension of uranium enrichment, a process that can make both fuel for civilian reactors and the explosive core of atomic bombs.

"Iran will not accept having to make new commitments that extend the scope of the suspension of uranium enrichment," he said.

Earlier this month, Iran's top national security official and nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, asserted that cooperation and not threats were

needed in the dispute over Tehran's nuclear program.

"We've clearly told the European Union that Iran will never renounce its inalienable right to develop civilian nuclear technology but that we do not seek to develop an atomic bomb," he told Iranian state television from the Netherlands, where he was on a European tour to try to head off U.S. efforts to haul his country before the Security Council.

"We have stressed the solution to the problem of Iran's nuclear program is not pressure and threats but dialogue."

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Iranian officials have equally been asserting Iran's commitment to the non-proliferation treaty and its additional protocol, with an emphasis on showing greater transparency over the case that has aroused international concern.

"We are ready to accept all kinds of surveillance to remove the fears of the international community," said Abdollah Ramazanzadeh, the spokesman for Iran's reformist Cabinet, at a weekly press conference earlier this month.

He also ruled out the demand that Iran should fully suspend its enrichment activities, saying, "We have accepted to voluntarily suspend uranium enrichment, but it is illogical to ask us to renounce enrichment."

After a series of talks with the three European powers last October, Iran agreed to "temporarily" suspend uranium enrichment as a confidence-building

measure, declare nuclear activities, and allow tougher inspections. In December 2003, it signed the additional protocol, which has yet to be ratified by a Parliament now controlled by conservatives.

This summer, however, Tehran resumed the production of P2 centrifuges, in reaction to a critical resolution adopted by the IAEA in June. It has also recently said it is ready to convert 37 tons of yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas, which is the feed for the enrichment process.

Mousavian was quoted as having said that Iran had reached self-sufficiency in centrifuge technology, a key stage to enriching uranium.

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"Iran should be able to start enrichment activities within a few months but high-level decision makers still have not decided about the timing," he said.

Pointing to the October agreement, Mousavian said a year-long suspension of uranium enrichment coupled with Iran's signing the additional protocol to give IAEA inspectors "full access" to Iranian facilities were "enough for confidence-building."

He, at the same time, complained of the Europeans' "break of promises," claiming that Britain, France and Germany had failed to live up to their commitments to have the IAEA's investigation of Iran wrapped up by last June and to provide transfer of peaceful nuclear technology in exchange for Iran's cooperation, an argument the three countries refute.

Quoting an informed source, the Mehr News Agency reported Tuesday that the Islamic republic may file a complaint at The Hague against the IAEA board of directors should it try to halt its uranium enrichment activities.

The process of mining uranium, converting and then enriching it is legal under the NPT, as long as it is for fuel for reactors.

On the other hand, the head of Israeli intelligence, Gen. Aharon Zeevi,

claimed Monday that Iran could be in a position to develop a nuclear bomb without outside help within six months.

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The ongoing IAEA board meeting will be followed by one in November. Some analysts say that Iran will be given a warning this time but the crunch might come in November, depending on ElBaradei's report -- the seventh to the six written reports he has filed so far.

The Euro 3 have apparently worked towards a compromise with the United States over Iran in meetings in Vienna this week, but it is not clear if the United States would accept the watered-down form of a trigger insisted on by the Europeans.

Some reports suggest that Washington has dropped demands for IAEA inspectors to have unrestricted access to Iranian sites -- including some military bases thought to be involved in nuclear-related activities -- but has upheld a demand that Iran should suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment by Oct. 31.

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