Analysis: Turkey for Christmas?

BRUSSELS, Sept. 6 (UPI) -- A month to the day before the European Commission is due to deliver its verdict on Turkey's EU membership bid, the prospect of a "yes" decision has never been rosier following intensive lobbying by Ankara, Washington and leading politicians in most European capitals.

Commission official remain tight-lipped about the long-awaited report on Turkey's application, which is due to be published Oct. 6. But Enlargement Commissioner Gunter Verheugen, who began a four-day visit to the predominantly Muslim country Monday, has been dropping hints he intends to issue a positive conclusion next month.

Speaking in the European Parliament last week, Verhuegen rejected a call by a Dutch government advisory body to begin membership negotiations in two years. The senior official said if the commission judged Ankara met the bloc's stringent political criteria and EU leaders backed the executive body's decision in December, accession talks could start within 4-5 months.

After meeting Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul Monday, Verhuegen said Turkey's "moment of truth" was fast approaching. "We agree that there is now certainly sufficient critical mass on the table to allow us to make a final judgement, ... and I can promise you that it will be fair and objective and honest and that it will take into account the impressive progress that was made in Turkey."

The moderate Islamic-oriented government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lobbied EU leaders intensively for Turkey to be welcomed into the European club of nations 40 years after it first lodged an application. And with a month to go until the commission makes the last major decision of its five-year mandate, the pressure appears to be paying off.

In addition to Washington, which never misses an opportunity to press Ankara's case, Turkey has powerful friends in most of Europe's major capitals. "People need to think very carefully about the strategic implications of pushing Turkey away, pushing Turkey to the east and to the south," British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Tuesday. "I don't think that's in anybody's interests in Europe."

In an interview with the International Herald Tribune last week, Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski -- whose country only joined the Union in May -- said he was "absolutely in favor of Turkey's membership of the EU." Germany, which has over 3 million Turks on its territory, is also an enthusiastic backer of Ankara's bid.

Erdogan's case was further strengthened Monday when an independent team of senior European politicians, including former French premier Michel Rocard, ex-Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari and former Polish Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek, strongly supported Turkey's tender.

"Turkey has undergone a silent revolution in recent years in trying to meet the political criteria necessary for membership of the EU," said committee chair Ahtisaari. "Further delay would damage the European Union's credibility."

Stating that Turkish membership of the EU was a "life insurance policy I would pay whatever the cost," Rocard told United Press International, "Turkey is ready to start negotiations, but membership is not for tomorrow and negotiations are not always successful." Most experts believe even if EU leaders give Ankara the green light in December, membership talks are likely to be long and the secular Muslim state is unlikely to join the 25-member bloc before 2015.

Opponents of Turkish membership claim letting the Eurasian country of 70 million people into the EU would lead to a mass westward migration of Turkish workers, require tens of billions of dollars of aid for decades to come, bring Mideast instability closer to the EU -- Turkey borders Iraq, Iran and Syria -- upset the delicate balance of power within the club and dilute Europe's Christian values. They also contest that torture is still widespread in Turkish prisons and police stations, women's rights are trampled on in southeastern areas of the country, and progressive human rights laws exist more on paper than in practice.

"Turkey has always represented another continent throughout history, in permanent contrast to Europe," Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the Vatican's head of theology, told French daily Le Figaro last month. Austrian Foreign Minister Benita Ferrero-Waldner, who will become her country's commissioner in November, has said: "Turkey today is not yet ready for joining the EU -- and the EU is not yet ready for such a step either, ... given that we have just completed the biggest enlargement in the Union's history."

Erdogan's government has probably done little to advance its case by supporting a draft law aimed at making adultery illegal, but the authors of Monday's independent report argue Turkey's admission to the EU would provide "undeniable proof that Europe is not a closed 'Christian club' and ... the 'clash of civilizations' is not the ineluctable destiny of mankind."

The report claims that Turkish membership of the EU would boost the bloc's military clout, bolster its weight on Mideast issues internationally, and give a kick-start to Europe's sluggish economy. However, it also warns that a "no" decision could reverse the reform process in Turkey and lead to instability on Europe's southeastern flank.

"If Turkish hopes are disappointed, an advance of ultra-nationalist as well as Islamist currents should be expected and a revival of violence in the Kurdish populated regions would be likely to lead to increased stability and the return of the military establishment to a more assertive role," the report said.

The stakes are high for both the EU and Turkey, which is why both sides are awaiting the commission's verdict on Oct. 6 with baited breath.