Analysis: Hurricane forecasts accurate

MIAMI, Sept. 6 (UPI) -- The history of Hurricane Frances is long by hurricane standards, and it illustrates what's good about tropical weather forecasting and what is not as good.

As is usually the case, the landfall predicted by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami was right on target. Two days before it hit, hurricane center forecasters predicted the center of the storm would hit Stuart, Fla. Sure enough, shortly after midnight Sunday, that's where the core of the storm went in.

But predicting intensity is another matter. On Thursday, Hurricane Center Dirtector Max Mayfield said he did not "see anything out there" that would drop the storm's strength from a Category 4.

By Friday, it's winds of 145 mph had dropped to 115 mph and it was a

Category 2. When it made landfall Sunday, winds were 105 mph.

The center refuses to brag about its accuracy for direction over the last few years, and has asked for help from the scientific community to come up with more ways to assess intensity.

Hurricane Charley provides the same illustration. In the hours before it struck, it jumped without warning from a Category 2 to a Category 4.

Mayfield called it a "nightmare scenario, we've been talking about for years."

Nobody expected the ferocity of the storm. When Frances was approaching people expected that kind of intensity but didn't get it. Instead they got a hurricane that covered the entire state with at least tropical force winds.

There were also many bitter complaints by the forecasting of the direction of Charley, but it was actually no more than 35-45 miles off.

The problem was that the storm came into the Florida coast at such a sharp angle from south to north, that those 35-45 miles translated into the 100 miles between Tampa and Punta Gorda.

The slight shift to the east meant that the storm hit the coast at Charlotte Harbour before it could get to Tampa.

As a result, when Frances approached last week, forecasters cautioned residents to pay attention to the warning area, which covered most of the state's east coast, and not to the pinpoint projection -- which turned out to be accurate.

Tampa got a taste from Frances Sunday night when the tropical storm went through and into the Gulf of Mexico following a nearly 24-hour trip across Florida.

After leaving the Tampa Bay area -- where minor damage was reported and many streets were flooded -- Frances headed for the Florida Panhandle with 65 mph winds.

The state Division of Emergency Management reported two deaths in Florida from Frances. One woman died when a tree fell on her mobile home at Gainesville, Fla., and a man was killed in a storm-related traffic accident, also near Gainesville.

Damage was reported from nearly every corner of the state, accept for the Panhandle, but it was not nearly as severe as the devastation left by Hurricane Charley.

Charley caused more than two dozen deaths and damage was estimated at more than $10 billion. Although the state did not issue any figures or even opinions, damage was expected to go well more than $1 billion from Frances but nothing near Charley's numbers.

"The storm is still in our state. We're hoping it won't refortify itself," Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings said. "We haven't gotten through with this storm. Sixty counties have been impacted by loss of power alone.

"When Charley came through the state we lost power to 2 million people. We're upwards of 6 million today," she said.

She said the emergency operation is under way and food, water and ice is being made available to victims.

"We're encouraging people to stay off the roads. We need to have those roads accessible for our emergency vehicles," she said. "We're asking people to stay where they are for another day."

Another problem is the shortage of gasoline. First of all, so many people topped off their tanks in advance of the storm, gas stations ran out of fuel. Gasoline was arriving in Port Everglades and a huge fleet of tankers is taking it to distribution points and retail outlets.

The other problem is that the pumps operate on electricity, and in those areas where power is down, the pumps remain idle.

"Patience will be the word of the week," Jennings said.

At 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Frances was located by the National Hurricane Center at Miami at latitude 29.5 north, longitude 84.0 west or about 60 miles east-southeast of Apalachicola, Fla.

Frances was moving northwest at 12 mph. Landfall was expected in the Panhandle by Monday evening and then was forecast to move on into Alabama, Georgia and points north where residents are bracing for plenty of wet weather.

A hurricane warning was posted for the Panhandle from the Suwanee River north of Cedar Key to Indian Pass, southwest of Appalachicola.

Meanwhile, dangerous Hurricane Ivan was churning toward the Lesser Antilles with 125 mph winds. At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 11.1 north, longitude 52.6 west, or about 485 miles east-southeast of Barbados.

The Category 4 storm was moving west at 23 mph and a west to west-northwest track is expected over the next day or so.

Hurricane warning flags were flying in Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

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