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Analysis: A Russian crisis ends, another looms

By PETER LAVELLE

MOSCOW, Sept. 3 (UPI) -- Just past noon on Friday, an operation commenced to end the hostage crisis in the southern republic of North Ossetia - a crisis that once again exposed weaknesses in Russia's security services.

The crisis, which started on Wednesday in the small city of Beslan, always lacked clarity - the reported number of hostage takers and hostages changed over the past three days. And hours before the rescue operation started, the Kremlin denied that force would be applied to free a large number of children. Even watching live television footage of the rescue operation, it was difficult to determine how the hostage crisis ended.

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Russian media outlets have reported that the roof of the school gymnasium, where anywhere from 350 to over 1,000 hostages were held, partially collapsed while a military helicopter hovered above. Shortly after, dozens of young children -- barely clothed, bloodied and dehydrated -- were seen running from the school. For the next hour explosions could be heard, hundreds of shots were fired, while parents and other Beslan residents charged the school looking for their children. The images of heavily armed soldiers and civilians surrounding the school bordered on the bizarre.

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As of this writing, it has been reported that well over 150 hostage victims have been hospitalized. Unconfirmed reports claim more than 100 bodies have been recovered from the gymnasium. There were eight initial deaths at the start of the hostage crisis.

The reported number of hostage takers has varied from 17 to 40. Some reports claim a number of militants were killed, possibility five, during the rescue operation. Russia media are claiming the money of the militants were nationals from a number of Arab countries. Still others report that a number of militants escaped wearing civilian clothing as the first children fled the building.

Virtually nothing about this tragedy can be reported on with certainty. While it is obvious the authorities have an interest in withholding sensitive information that could compromise the security of the hostages and the plans for their rescue, the lack of coherent information also could shed light on problems with the Kremlin's approach to fighting terrorism.

Without more details about the rescue operations, particularly concerning fatalities, Russian President Vladimir Putin surely is pleased that the hostage crisis is over, but again the bloodletting appears to be high - higher than first reports. However, he must also be asking himself how over the past two weeks terrorists have been able to down two passenger airliners, a suicide bomber could strike against a Moscow subway station, and how a band of hostage takers not only seized a school and held captive up to 1,000 people, but also held his presidency hostage for three days. Clearly, Putin's security forces are failing him.

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Putin has publicly stated that he knows the security forces are not providing him with reliable information. During a trip to Chechnya after the assassination of Kremlin favorite Akhmad Kadyrov on May 9 and after a visit to Ingushetia following a terrorist raid in June, Putin was shocked as to how he was misinformed by what are called the "siloviki" - people of power. The hostage crisis in Beslan was another example of trusted and loyal supporters failing him.

There is no reason to believe the incompetence of the security forces is designed to injure Putin. What does injure Putin is their ineffectiveness and corruption. To date, Putin has vigorously supported and promoted his former colleagues in what had been the KGB and other ex-Soviet security agencies. They have been instrumental in bringing to heel the country's super-rich, call the "oligarchs," and tightening control over the electronic media. However, they have failed in their primary duty - to protect Russia, its citizens, and in making their boss look good.

In the wake of this most recent hostage crisis, it is hoped that Putin will take pause. He came to office with a simple agenda - law and order. The key plank of that agenda was to wipe out Chechen extremism and violence. After almost five years, Putin can confidently claim that Russia is more prosperous, more respected in the world, and determined to be major international energy broker. However, recent events highlight what has not changed in Russia - it is not safer. Surely Russia is in for terrorist attacks and possibly more hostage situations as the political and human crisis continues in Chechnya. In the face of that threat, it clear the Kremlin is not prepared.

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Putin needs a new team of security advisers to fight Russia's war on terrorism - a war Russia can't claim to be winning. Putin also needs to prove he is in charge of his "siloviki" and not the other way around.

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