PARIS, June 29 (UPI) -- After four decades navigating the fickle currents of French politics, French President Jacques Chirac finds himself in some of the deepest waters of his marathon career.
His popularity and that of his prime minister, Jean Pierre Raffarin, have plunged to some of the lowest ratings in his nine-year presidency, as France's conservative government pushes through unpopular reforms.
Now, the 71-year-old French leader faces rebellion within the ranks of his own Union for a Popular Movement, or UMP Party -- not only over key policy issues, but also over a man who has openly declared his intent to take over Chirac's job in 2007.
That man is Chirac's own finance minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, who said in a November television interview that he thinks about being president "and not only when I'm shaving."
Today, Sarkozy is considered a top pick to replace Chirac's own favored successor, Alain Juppe, as head of the UMP this fall.
Sarkozy challenged the French president anew this past weekend, appearing to reject Chirac's ultimatum that he could either seek the UMP leadership or stay on as finance minister -- but not keep both posts.
He would respect the rules, Sarkozy told UMP adherents during a strained two-day meeting near Paris, so long "as they were the same for all."
His remarks were a less-than-veiled allusion not only to Juppe -- the current UMP president, who is also mayor of Bordeaux -- but also to Chirac's own career, in which he once juggled dual posts of French prime minister and mayor of Paris.
Chirac "is at the end of his political existence," declared Bernard Debre, a politician from the smaller, center-right Union for French Democracy Party, in an interview with Radio Monte Carlo.
But others hesitate to write off a man who has played political comeback-kid before.
"It would be a bit fast to announce the end of his political career," said Florence Haegel, a researcher for the Center for French Political Life, in an interview. "Jacques Chirac, along with other political leaders like (former president) Francois Mitterrand, have had moments of crisis and weakness and rebounded before."
Once nicknamed "le bulldozer" for getting the job done as a member of then-prime minister Georges Pompidou's cabinet in the 1960s, Chirac went on to become prime minister in 1974 before losing the job in a power struggle.
But he returned to the center of French political life two years later, forming the Rally for the Republic Party, and later holding the prestigious post as Paris mayor. In 1995 he trumped a top rival, former prime minister Eduard Balladur, to succeed Francois Mitterrand as president of France.
And in the 2002 presidential vote, when Chirac was again facing dismal polls and a serious challenge from his socialist prime minister, he came roaring back and trounced far-right leader Jean-Marie le Pen in a fortuitous runoff.
Could he keep going and win a third presidential term three years from now -- when Chirac will be less-than-blooming 74 years old?
"It's not excluded," Haegel said. "After such a long political career, it's hard to see him leaving it. And now that Juppe can't take over as his successor, it's hard to see him stepping away from it."
But Chirac also seems to have lost his political touch in recent months.
He recently declared himself favorable to Turkey's eventual membership in the European Union -- albeit laced by multiple caveats -- and remained ambiguous about putting the EU's constitution to a popular vote. Both positions are at odds with the leadership of his own UMP party.
But the biggest bone of contention centers on Sarkozy, who once dated Chirac's daughter, sided with rival Balladur in the 1995 elections, and who the president allegedly despises.
For the French public and many conservative politicians, however, Sarkozy can do little wrong.
When Chirac handed him the tough job of interior minister two years ago, 49-year-old Sarkozy presided over a successful crackdown on crime and drunk driving.
Even today, in the unenviable post of managing France's lackluster economy, Sarkozy remains France's most popular, conservative politician.
Indeed, a poll last week indicated 34 percent of French see Sarkozy as the best representative of the French right -- compared with only 14 percent for Chirac, and 8 percent for Raffarin.
Within the ranks of the UMP party, many also see Sarkozy as the only viable leader.
"With or without Chirac's veto, Sarkozy has secured the UMP presidency," said Pascal Thevenot, a Paris-area lawmaker and UMP member as he confidently predicted the minister's chances.
"In my federation, we only swear by him," Thevenot told Le Figaro newspaper.
Such declarations have not been appreciated by Sarkozy's direct boss -- Prime Minister Raffarin, who is also reportedly mulling a run for the UMP presidency. On Tuesday, he called the deputy to order, saying that anyone who landed the top party seat must quit his government.
"A rule is a rule," Raffarin told Europe 1 radio.
So far, Chirac has not publicly responded to Sarkozy's challenge. But pundits -- and the public -- are eagerly awaiting the president's traditional Bastille Day remarks on television, two weeks from now.
