SEOUL, March 19 (UPI) -- For now, Roh Moo-hyun is in a tight corner. The impeached South Korean president has been stripped of all of his executive powers. For now, all he can do is wait for a final ruling of the Constitutional Court on his political fate.
If the court approves the impeachment with a two-thirds vote from its nine justices, Roh must step down, marking a bitter and premature end to his yearlong reform drive.
Even though the reasons for the country's unprecedented presidential impeachment seem weak, Roh's future is uncertain because most of the nine justices were nominated by his predecessor Kim Dae-jung's Millennium Democratic Party and opposition Grand National Party, which have joined forces to unseat Roh.
In a bad omen, the chief justice of the court's special impeachment committee had put Roh in jail on charges of abetting striking workers in 1987, when the president was acting as a liberal labor lawyer.
But if the court decides to keep Roh in office, he is expected to gain power and status because his direct approach to voters has won wide popular support. Crucial parliamentary elections are less than a month away.
The opposition's impeachment bid has unexpectedly backfired and triggered the strongest political protests in the country in 16 years, sharply boosting the popularity of Roh's party.
Demonstrators have taken to the streets every day since last Friday's parliamentary move to denounce opposition lawmakers who voted to impeach Roh. More than 100,000 protestors flocked downtown Seoul last weekend. Organizers say more than a million people will turn out across the country for protests this weekend.
The public protest has great significance because it was joined by a number of people in their 40s who led the 1987 democratic movements that dislodged the country's decades-long military dictatorship. They say their protests "safeguard" the democracy they secured in the 1987 struggles against the military junta. They described the impeachment as a "parliamentary coup."
Upbeat about the unexpectedly strong pro-Roh demonstrations, the minority Uri Party, a group of lawmakers loyal to Roh, declared the April 15 general elections "a battle to defend democracy."
Calling the opposition parties that railroaded the impeachment motion as "undemocratic forces," the party's leader Chung Dong-young called for the people to use their votes to punish "those who destroy hard-won democracy."
"The passage of the unconstitutional impeachment motion has given rise to the shaping of one force dedicated to maintaining democracy and the other undemocratic forces that would destroy democracy at any time," Chung told a group of foreign correspondents.
No doubt the impeachment has galvanized Roh supporters, stunning opposition parties that intended to continue to dominate the National Assembly by impeaching the unpopular president.
Recent public surveys showed the popularity of Roh's Uri Party is skyrocketing, whereas the opposition parties are suffering from a strong public backlash.
According to a joint survey by Gallup Korea and the country's leading Chosun Ilbo newspaper, support for the Uri Party has soared to 46.8 percent, a sharp rise from less than 30 percent last month.
On the other hand, the popularity of the main opposition Grand National Party -- which holds a majority in parliament -- plunged to 15.8 percent. The Millennium Democratic Party, which initiated the impeachment motion, saw its ratings tumble to 6.8 percent.
Local polling agencies show the popularity of the Uri Party at close to 50 percent. According to private SBS-TV and polling agency TNS, some 53 percent of South Koreans support the Uri Party. But in the single-chamber legislature, the GNP has 145 seats and the MDP holds 62. The Uri Party has only 47 seats.
Surveys also show that more than seven out of 10 South Koreans disapproved of the vote to impeach the president. The two opposition parties, along with minority United Liberal Democrats, voted last Friday to impeach Roh for violations of election rules, alleged corruption and incompetence. It is the first time in South Korea's history that a sitting president has been impeached.
Political analysts say the impeachment crisis has ironically boosted the popularity of Roh, who had suffered low approval ratings since he took office in February last year. Roh's approval rate had already dwindled to 30 percent from more than 90 percent following a series of corruption scandals involving his aides and over his own policy flip-flops.
"Many people consider President Roh's impeachment as a threat to the country's democratic achievements made for the past 16 years," said Cho Hi-yon, a professor at Sungkonghoe University.
If the results of the parliamentary elections were in favor of the Uri Party, Roh's status would be sharply boosted and he can push for tougher political reforms, Cho and other analysts say.
Roh already has vowed to use the April elections to test the nation's confidence in his rule. At a time when the opposition was preparing for his impeachment, Roh told a nationally televised news conference that he would make a "political decision" on his future based on the outcome of the general elections.
"The victory of the Uri Party would be interpreted as a fresh public mandate for President Roh to push for his reform agenda," said Prof. Kim Tae-hyun of Chung-Ang University.
The possible victory of the Uri Party could undermine the opposition's stance at the hearings at the Constitutional Court, which may affect its ruling on Roh's impeachment. The court is highly unlikely to make a final ruling before the elections.
"President Roh's political fate largely depends on the outcome of the general elections," Kim said.
