MOSCOW, Feb. 19 (UPI) -- Russia's Gazprom gas company resumed natural gas deliveries to Belarus today, ending an almost 24-hour suspension.
For years, Belarus has demanded preferential price treatment from its western neighbor as both countries slowly move toward political union. Gazprom and the Kremlin are far more interested in its western European clients.
Gazprom halted gas supplies to Belarus -- and a large part of its European customers in the process -- after the two countries could not agree to a new supply contract. Gazprom also accused Minsk of siphoning off gas from its export pipeline into Europe. After a one-day stand-off, the Russian producer Transneft stepped in to sign a one-month agreement to supply some of Belarus' natural gas needs through the end of the month. In the meantime, Russia and Belarus have a lot of hard bargaining ahead of them.
There is little doubt that Belarussian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka will agree to Gazprom's demand that any new contracts reflect current market prices. However, Belarus, with a Soviet-style command economy and almost completely dependent on Russian energy supplies, most likely intended to create an diplomatic crisis to highlight its only strong card when facing off with the Kremlin: Belarus is an important transit point supplying Gazprom's European costumers.
It is estimated that Gazprom supplies up to a quarter of all Europe's gas needs, with 17 percent supplied from a Gazprom pipeline going though Belarus. Any meaningful halt in gas shipments would hit Poland the hardest, with alternative supply sources and enough stored gas to cover several weeks. Germany, Gazprom's largest customer, and other Western European countries have reserves covering many months if there is a gas imports shortfall.
Gazprom has stated that the company has reserve capacity in its pipelines through Ukraine to cover most of the losses from the line through Belarus. From a business point of view, Gazprom's customers most likely feel reassured that the Russia-Belarus spat would not impact Europe's economy.
The immediate concern is Lukashenka's ability to blackmail the Kremlin to receive generous energy terms as well as seek concessions in what will become the Russia-Belarus union. Longer-term concerns are far more important: Russia as stable energy supplier.
Gazprom is one of the Kremlin's strongest cards in dealing with Europe. Europe's energy dependency allows Russia to negotiate a number of trade issues with European Union from a position of strength. Any halt of gas supplies to Europe not only severely damages Russia's negotiating position; it also endangers Europe's energy and national security. Europe and Russia disagree on many political issues, the politics of energy find both handcuffed to the other.
Belarus has shown Russia that it too is a player in Europe's energy security. What Gazprom's European partners what to know is whether transit companies can be trusted. Russia and Ukraine have had similar conflicts on gas supplies and transnational shipments. However, it is only Russia that can influence the behavior of Belarussian and Ukrainian political elites. These elites have their own very complicated differences with the Kremlin.
In the end, Belarus will concede to Gazprom's price demands. One way or another, Europe will receive the energy it needs from Russia. However, this recent diplomatic crisis with Belarus (there was a border dispute with Ukraine last summer) creates a political dilemma Europe and Russia may not feel very uncomfortable about.
On the one hand, Russia is often accused of meddling in the domestic affairs of its neighbors. On the other, Europe has no choice but to pressure Russia to influence its former Soviet republics for its own energy and national security interests. No one should be surprised if the Kremlin turns around one day and asks Europe how it defines "national determination." The Kremlin won't be looking for a political definition; it will just want to know how many billion square meters of natural gas Europe has stored in the event of an emergency.
Peter Lavelle is an UPI Moscow-based analyst and author of the electronic newsletter Untimely Thoughts (untimely-thoughts.com).
