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Analysis: S.C. Dems 'back in the game'

By MARIE HORRIGAN, UPI Deputy Americas Editor

COLUMBIA, S.C., Feb. 4 (UPI) -- When Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., won South Carolina's presidential primary he posted an unexpected 15-point lead over to put a shadow on Sen. John Kerry's growing stronghold over the Democratic nomination.

And when polls closed in the state's first Democratic presidential primary in 12 years, South Carolina voters had turned out in record-breaking numbers, marking a significant victory for the state's struggling Democratic Party, state party Chairman Joe Erwin said Wednesday.

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South Carolina, a state that trends socially and fiscally conservative, has long been staunchly Republican. President Bush carried the state with 57 percent of the vote in 2000, and Republicans swept eight out of 10 statewide seats, in the 2002 election.

"Yeah, we got our butts whooped," Erwin conceded, referring to the 2002 election. That stunning defeat, he said, was part of the reason Erwin ran for the SCDP party chairmanship, a 2-year post we took over in May.

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Erwin said he knew Tuesday's primary would be a very visible test of the state's party -- one that could have been potentially embarrassing -- but that it also provided an opportunity to thrust South Carolina into the presidential agenda and give the party a boost.

But state Democrats rose to the challenge of raising the funds to pay for the primary -- South Carolina is one of two U.S. states to require parties pay for their primaries -- raising approximately $623,000 for the race with 56 percent of the donations for $100 or less, he said.

Moreover, according to estimates Wednesday morning, nearly 300,000 voters turned out for the primary, a 275-percent increase over the 1992 Democratic presidential primary.

This turnout was both a boost for the party and a chance to showcase the hard work of grass-roots efforts in the state over the past year. One person Erwin credited for reinvigorating the state party is Katie Fowler, who graduated from South Carolina's Presbyterian College in 2002 and is president of the South Carolina Young Democrats.

The SCYD put together Thursday's all-candidate debate in Greenville that was cablecast live by MSNBC. The party had its first meeting in March with approximately 100 members. Now it has close to 1,300 e-mail addresses in its database. Fowler said the group is made up of young people like her -- who are "so (ticked) off the state party ruined our last election" -- and others who are just getting involved in politics.

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The introduction of this "new blood," Erwin said, has re-energized the longtime party members who had grown tired of doing all the work.

Tuesday's election marks the start of "the strongest grass-roots organization that this party has ever seen in South Carolina," he said.

However, Luke Byars, executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, dismissed claims of Democratic Party resurgence. Democratic statements that the state is trending Democratic "is all bunk," he told United Press International. Numbers from the 1992 primary isn't a fair yardstick, he said, as lower turnout at that time was a "reflection of that day and age." Some 148,000 South Carolinian's took part in the presidential primary in 1992, while 600,000 voted in the 2000 GOP Republican primary, more than double the Democratic turnout Tuesday.

"Look, they've had their day in the spotlight ... but I think they're going to have a rude awakening in November."

But while Erwin and Fowler both admitted the GOP has a huge head start over the Democrats, both say Tuesday's results lay the groundwork for rebuilding the party.

Erwin vowed to work not to allow any more elections -- for everything from coroner to U.S. senator -- go uncontested by Democrats who assume they can't beat a Republican candidate. "If you don't go to the plate you can't bat," he said.

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Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welsh told UPI Tuesday's results are also significant beyond just South Carolina. They are part of a trend of increased Democratic turnout that started in Iowa and New Hampshire, he said. "There's a surge among voters who are committed to removing George W. Bush from office. ... I think the Republicans would be ill-served to dismiss this quickly."

Or, as Fowler said, "hubris is a bitch. I think it's really gonna bite them (the Republicans) in the behind if they don't watch it."

Pollster John Zogby agreed the phenomenon could be significant for the Republican Party, and for South Carolina's Democrats. Even though the state significantly conservative, it also has lost more jobs per capita of any state in the country, and Democrats have been hammering the issue of jobs and the economy.

According to Welsh, revitalization of South Carolina's Democratic Party will happen and Tuesday's primary will have been part of the process. "Is it easy?" he asked, "No. But (South Carolina's) Democrats are realizing they're not alone and I think it helps that they were such an important part of the voting process."

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