Analysis: A look at Chile's future elections

SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- A decisive political struggle between the center-left government bloc of parties headed by Chile's President Ricardo Lagos and the right-wing alliance will occur in 10 months when municipal elections are held. The elections will decisively establish which faction voters prefer for the presidential elections of 2005. According to public opinion surveys, Joaquin Lavin, leader of the opposition and currently mayor of Santiago, leads the race at the present time.

The current political calm precedes a more unsettled 2004, which will be marked by an anxious pre-electoral atmosphere when government and opposition alliances will weigh what has been achieved by the administration in the past four years against future efforts to achieve higher levels of social equality and development.

It is remarkable that the opposing positions emphasize a positive and competent approach to the electorate by concentrating more on what can be further improved rather than on what has not been achieved. At the start of the New Year, the parties are focusing on finishing lists of mayoral and town council candidates, who -- because of reforms -- will be elected separately for the first time, not as a bloc.

The Coalition of Parties for Democracy, an alliance of parties forming the main base of support for the Lagos government, has high expectations of victory. The optimism is partially due to the fact that the opposition is enmeshed in negative publicity over a pedophilia network scandal, which, while yet to be proven, allegedly involves two senators from the Independent Democratic Union, a key party of the Alliance for Chile coalition.

A second cause for optimism is that a greater level of unity that has been reestablished after factionalism raised fears that the Christian Democratic Party would withdraw from the coalition. Buoyant expectations for the economy for the next two years are another contribution to the government's favorable position, as the unemployment rate has fallen from double-digit figures a few months ago to 8.8 percent, according to the most recent figures from the National Institute of Statistics.

Another contributing factor is a historically high price for copper, reaching a dollar the pound by the end of 2003. As copper is the country's main export, its high export earnings guarantee the government's ability to finance more plans and projects over the next two years.

The Socialist Party and the leftist bloc Party for Democracy are making plans and selecting their candidates as they fine tune their campaign slogans. The Party for Democracy's objective is to continue consolidating their advances of the last few years. The Socialist Party aims to break the electoral stagnation limiting it to 11 percent of the electorate, hoping to boost its support to 15 percent.

The governing majority party Christian Democracy is currently organizing candidates nationwide under the leadership of its top representative, Senator Adolfo Zaldivar. The October 2004 elections are especially important for Zaldivar, as he hopes they will give him the opportunity to reverse the party's downward trend of the last few years while allowing him to set himself up as Christian Democracy's candidate in the presidential elections, a position that is being openly challenged by the present Minister of Foreign Relations Soledad Alvear and senator for life and former president, Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle.

The government observes the political process at a distance. Two advisers to Lagos told Tiempos del Mundo that he is ready to take part in his faction's negotiations if necessary to ensure the bloc's electoral success to generate momentum for the 2005 presidential elections.

As far as the right is concerned, the pedophilia scandal has preoccupied the two parties comprising the Alliance for Chile. The investigation led by Judge Sergio Munoz, which is looking into unsubstantiated rumors involving two senators, continues but the controversy remains at present a purely police matter. The leaders Pablo Longuiera of the Independent Democratic Union and Sebastian Pinera of the National Renovation have worn themselves out over the last six weeks in pointless efforts, attempting to prove the existence of a covert leftist plot destined to smear their presidential candidate Lavin by ruining his reputation.

Lavin maintains a high public approval rating in spite of everything, and even though he has lost some percentage points in the polls, he is still regarded as the candidate with most possibilities and voter support, which makes him a strong contender in the race for the presidency.

(Paola Aguillon Espinoza is a writer with Tiempos del Mundo)