(This is the fifth and concluding part of United Press International's series to mark the end of the 1950-53 Korean War)
The specter of nuclear-weapons proliferation has arisen once again, coming most recently from North Korea, Iran and even possibly terrorist organizations in possession of a "dirty bomb."
United Press International sought out answers to leading questions about the clandestine development of nuclear-weapons programs and the international attempt to contain them.
Q. Who has nuclear weapons and for how long?
A. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency says the five permanent members of the Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- are formally declared and acknowledged by the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as nuclear weapon states.
Nuclear weapons date from the end of World War II. By 1954, the exclusive "club" included only Britain, Russia and the United Sates. France Joined in 1960 and China in 1964.
Q. Which countries are not signatories to the NPT?
A. A second group of countries with nuclear weapons that have not joined NPT nor accepted "comprehensive" IAEA safeguards, but have well-developed nuclear programs and the technological capability to build nuclear explosive devices.
This group is commonly referred to as "threshold" states and consists of India, Israel and Pakistan.
While Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear capability, it is widely regarded as having had "the bomb" since the 1970s. India first conducted a nuclear test in 1974 for "peaceful purposes," and India and Pakistan again conducted nuclear weapons tests in 1998. Pakistan was believed to have had nuclear research help, but not with weapons, from China.
South Africa had assembled nuclear weapons in the 1980s, but subsequently renounced and dismantled them in 1991. This was confirmed through IAEA inspections.
Iraq has tried to develop a nuclear program as early as the late 1970s but saw its dream shattered when the Israeli air force carried out a raid against its sole facility in Osirak in June 1981. Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq was believed to continue its clandestine weapons program, but after the 1991 Gulf War, the U.N. Security Council requested the IAEA to neutralize this program, which was confirmed through inspections.
Q. What about fears over North Korea and Iran?
A. North Korea has, over several years, never fully complied with the safeguards obligations it accepted as a party to the NPT. It recently renounced the NPT and said it was taking spent nuclear reactor fuel rods and recycling the radioactive material in them to manufacture nuclear weapons. This has not been confirmed, but many believe Pyongyang has the capability to produce a nuclear device. The CIA says North Korea may, in fact, already have one or two nuclear weapons. Many also fear North Korea could be the conduit for such a weapon to get into the hands of terrorists. Russia was believed to have helped Pyongyang with its nuclear reactor program, but not nuclear weapons.
Also, Iran recently has been reported moving in the direction of a nuclear-weapons program because of its deal to take spent fuel rods from Russia and construction of suspected nuclear sites.
Q. Isn't the design and production of nuclear weapons more complicated than nearly 60 years ago?
A. No. It is a far simpler process than it was during the United States' Manhattan Project of the early 1940s, mainly because the research has been done. Indigenous development of nuclear weapons is possible for countries with industrial bases no greater than that of Iraq in 1990.
Q. Can terrorist groups build their own nuclear devices?
A. Yes, given a source of fissile material, even terrorist groups could construct their own nuclear explosive devices. At least two types of nuclear weapons can be built and fielded without any kind of atomic test yield, and the possessors could have reasonable confidence in the performance of those devices. The "good news" is that they do not have long-range missile delivery capability. Nuclear devices would have to be smuggled into target cities.
Q. What about obtaining material?
A. Fissile material production consumes the vast majority of the technical, industrial, and financial resources required to produce nuclear weapons. For example, production of fissile materials -- highly enriched uranium and plutonium -- accounted for more than 80 percent of the $1.9 billion (in 1945 dollars) spent on the Manhattan Project.
Some analysts believe the difficulties of enriching uranium are offset by the simpler weapon designs which enriched uranium allows. In the United States, HEU is considered less expensive to use in a weapon than plutonium.
Operation of a reactor to produce plutonium requires the extraction and purification of uranium and, in some cases, at least modest enrichment. Given international safeguards on reactors using enriched uranium obtained from another nation or heavy-water moderated reactors, a nation may be forced to construct an enrichment facility. The choice is likely to be determined by the indigenous availability of uranium and the national surplus (or shortage) of electricity.
Q. What is "yellow cake" that was reported to have been sought by Iraq from Niger?
A. It is concentrated uranium ore, 60 percent to 80 percent uranium.
Q. How can it be determined if a "rogue state" has been able to produce a nuclear weapon, especially if they have been able to hide the production facility?
A. There are several ways: Radiation detection; the increased use of electricity; sometimes, electromagnetic emissions from a centrifuge, laser or other means of separating U-235 from uranium. Also, standing up of elite military units to take custody of nuclear weapons or to use the units in security work would be a useful indicator that a new nuclear nation, dubbed a "proliferant," is working toward a nuclear weapon.
Q. What about "dirty bombs"?
A. Fear over terrorists using these bombs has increased since Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. It could be nothing more than the detonation of a moderate size conventional explosive device to disperse radiation from varied sources, including that used in medical equipment.
(Concludes)
