Analysis:US faces tough Iraq sell in China

SHANGHAI, Sept. 27 (UPI) -- U.S. President George W. Bush's efforts to win international support for military action Iraq is meeting with little enthusiasm so far in China, which holds one of five key positions on the U.N. Security Council.

Over the past week, China has indicated that it might approve of a new U.N. resolution demanding Iraq admit arms inspectors, but would likely oppose U.S. military action to topple Saddam Hussein's regime.

China has joined with Russia and France, two other vital Security Council members, in opposing the Bush administration's calls for international support for military campaign against the Iraqi government.

On Thursday, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji emerged from a meeting with French President Jacques Chirac in Paris after reportedly agreeing to a French proposal for a new round of U.N. resolutions.

France has proposed a "two-step approach", which calls for a pair of U.N. resolutions, one which sets the terms for a return of weapons inspectors to Iraq and another outlining actions if Baghdad fails to comply.

Zhu called on Iraq to abide by the U.N. demands and warned the Bush administration not to go it alone.

"We request that Iraq comply with U.N. resolutions without any preconditions," China's Foreign Ministry quoted Zhu as saying. "But a decision by the U.S. to act unilaterally will lead to severe consequences."

In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said this week he would oppose any new U.N. resolution.

"We favor a rapid resolution of the situation around Iraq on the basis of existing U.N. Security Council resolutions, and in accordance with the principles and norms of international law," Putin told reporters.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said on Friday that Moscow was not convinced by U.S. allegations that Iraq had links with the al Qaida network or had developed weapons of mass destruction.

China, Russia and France, along with Britain and the United States, have veto power on the 15-nation Security Council.

Meanwhile, Washington has stepped up its efforts to win support for a tough new U.N. resolution on Iraq and has sent diplomats to Russia and France, as well as Britain, its closest ally in the Security Council.

Britain and the United States are said to have reached an agreement on the resolution, which threatens Saddam with severe consequences unless he allows U.N. weapons inspectors complete access to Iraq.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has reportedly met with Chinese and Russian diplomats this week to discuss a draft of the new U.N. resolution, a final copy which is expected to be unveiled early next week.

"We are a long way from getting an agreement, but we are working hard," Powell told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee of the Bush administration's efforts to win international support for the resolution.

President Bush has pledged to use military force, with or without the support of the Security Council, to ensure that Iraq meets demands to eliminate its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs.

The U.N. weapons inspectors were pulled out of Iraq at the end of 1998 on the eve of U.S.-led bombing raids and have not been allowed to return since. Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri said last week it would be willing to accept the unconditional return of inspectors, which the Unite States dismissed as a stalling tactic.

Beijing has been consistent in its demands for a diplomatic solution to the Iraqi crisis, arguing that the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq should be respected. But observers say China could take the middle ground in a U.N. resolution regarding a military option, abstaining rather than vetoing.

"If the U.S. calls for the use of force against Iraq in a U.N. resolution, its likely that China will abstain from a vote," a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told United Press International. "Beijing doesn't want it to come to war, but doesn't want to risk its relations with the U.S. by vetoing a resolution."

The diplomat said rising levels of American investment, capital and technology in China is something that many Chinese leaders are not willing to jeopardize, especially with an anticipated change in leadership.

Despite major differences between the United States and China over human rights, humanitarian intervention and regional security issues, the two nations have in recent years found common ground in fighting narcotics trafficking, international organized crime, and, more importantly, the threat of global terrorism.

"It's entirely possible that the U.S. could offer some major concessions to China in return for its vote, or at least for abstaining from a vote on any upcoming U.N. resolution on Iraq," the diplomat said.

China's ambivalence toward resolving the Iraqi issue is nothing new. In late 1990, in the aftermath of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Beijing condemned Iraq and called for its withdrawal from Kuwait but abstained from voting on Security Council resolution authorizing the use of military action against the country.

Still, Beijing is also concerned about the expansion of a U.S. military presence closer to China's doorstep.

China is vehemently opposed to any external military action to change a regime, especially one that will extend further the U.S. military presence in the Middle East," said Wang Libing, a senior researcher at Zhejiang University in the southeastern city of Hangzhou. "This is a major concern for the government."