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Poverty to rise in Russia, World Bank says

Low price of oil and sanctions pressure spell trouble for Russia.

By Daniel J. Graeber

MOSCOW, April 1 (UPI) -- The health of the Russian economy depends in part on how well it can manage to thrive in an era of low oil prices and sanctions, a World Bank report said.

The World Bank in a report said Russia's mid-term economic prospects are likely to be clouded by the dual strains of a sustained bear market for crude oil and lingering sanctions pressure.

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"It is likely that when the full effects of the two shocks become evident in 2015, they will push the Russian economy into recession," the report said.

Economic sanctions were imposed in response to crises in Ukraine. A Russian government forecast said the "only possible source of recovery" was an increase in investment demand.

European sanctions imposed in July cut into the Russian energy sector, which accounted for more than half of the government's revenue.

The World Bank in December said it expected Russia's real gross domestic product should contract by 0.7 percent. That forecast was based on oil priced at $78 per barrel, nearly 30 percent higher than the current price.

With economic woes building, the World Bank said in its latest report poverty rates in Russia are expected to increase for the first time in nearly 20 years. Poverty rates held steady in Russia during the 2008-09 fiscal crisis because of growth in disposable income.

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The economy in 2015 will enter a "prolonged decline," the government said in February.

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