Angolan rebels in oil enclave seek talks

LUANDA, Angola, July 16 (UPI) -- Separatist rebels in Angola's oil-rich Cabinda enclave on Africa's west coast are reportedly seeking peace talks with the Luanda regime, a move that could open vast offshore fields in the Atlantic.

Ending the 35-year conflict in Cabinda, cut off from the rest of the former Portuguese colony by a sliver of the Democratic Republic of Congo, would do much to consolidate Angola's position as one of Africa's leading oil producers.

Most of Angola's production is in Cabinda and the regime deploys an estimated 30,000 troops there to keep the separatists of the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda under control.

Portuguese media reported July 9 that the leaders of the two main FLEC factions have called for peace talks. Negotiations will likely take place in Lisbon, although no firm date has yet been set.

"Peace talks with Luanda are likely and FLEC leaders will probably be accommodated so that the Angolan government can remove a small -- but more significant -- threat that a foreign power could take advantage of unrest in Cabinda," the U.S. security consultancy Stratfor noted.

Angola, which ended a 27-year civil war in 2003, maintains guarded relations with the DRC and the Republic of Congo.

The regime now led by President Eduardo dos Santos helped topple governments in both states in the 1990s when they gave sanctuary to armed groups opposed to the Luanda regime, most notably the now-disbanded National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, or UNITA.

FLEC, with some 2,000 members, has seen its military capabilities eroded over the years, a process accelerated by internal rivalries. Veiled threats by Luanda against the two Congos have also reduced the threat the rebels once posed.

Angola took over from Nigeria as sub-Saharan Africa's main oil producer in 2008, largely because Nigeria's oil production was slashed by one-third due to a tribal insurgency in its oil-rich Niger Delta region.

Increasing Angolan production will have strategic implications for the United States, which imports most of the country's output.

This is currently pegged at 1.87 million barrels per day, compared to 165,000 bpd in 1975 when the Portuguese left.

Angola's proven reserves have grown from the equivalent of some 5.4 billion barrels in 1997 to an estimated 13 billion barrels, with more expected.

Output is expected to grow by 500,000 bpd over the next few years, with three ultra-deep offshore fields coming on stream by 2011.

On Wednesday, Eni SpA of Italy announced a major discovery in Block 15/06 some 60 miles offshore. It operates in the block with Total of France and Petrobras of Brazil, another former Portuguese colony and which is now a rising oil power itself.

Indeed, Petrobras currently maintains stakes in six offshore blocks and operates half of them. Five remain in the exploration stage, with only one actually producing -- a paltry 6,200 bpd.

However, there have been reports that Luanda could auction off licenses at the end of this year. The Chinese, who have been snapping up blocks across Africa, are likely to make a big push to secure access to Angola's offshore fields.

All this strengthens Dos Santos' drive to transform a country that is still recovering from decades of conflict into the dominant power in southern Africa, capable of usurping South Africa.

However, its ambitions are expected to thrust it into deeper rivalry with South Africa, with both competing for influence over the same region -- Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, the DRC, Congo-Brazzaville, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

As Angola's oil wealth grows, it will become a regional economic power that will give it much greater clout -- and a target for its rivals in the continent's turbulent and complex political landscape.

"Luanda sees these countries as its near-abroad, and ensures there are friendly regimes ruling these countries that will not provide support to the Angolan rebel group-turned-opposition political party," UNITA, Stratfor observed.

"Angola has deployed troops in recent years in the DRC to protect the Joseph Kabila government in Kinshasa from a Rwandan-backed insurgency in the country's North Kivu region.

"Luanda views the pro-Luanda Kabila government as a critical front line to safeguard against having DRC territory used as a UNITA rearguard area, which was the case when Mobutu Sese Seko ruled the Congo."