Bolivia oil industry held back by state meddling

LA PAZ, Bolivia, Feb. 25 (UPI) -- State meddling is holding back Bolivia's hydrocarbons industry, which showed early promise of growth but more recently has seen production fall, findings published Thursday indicated.

Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010, published by the Irish Research and Markets, showed that regional oil use in Latin America had gone from 6.93 million barrels a day in 2001 to 7.74 million barrels a day in 2009 but Bolivia was featured in small percentages in those overall figures for supply and demand.

The Research and Markets report is aimed at industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies because of its stated focus on independent forecasting and competitive intelligence on Bolivia's oil and gas industry.

Latin America hydrocarbon resources are at the center of international merger-and-acquisition activity spearheaded by emergent economies, particularly China, amid a scramble for guaranteed energy supplies for the coming decades.

Citing a new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report, the new study said Bolivia will account for 0.71 percent of Latin American regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.58 percent of supply.

This contrasts with rising demand, production and supply elsewhere in Latin America, particularly Brazil and Chile, that accounted for Latin America's increased oil demand and which is only seen as rising. Oil use in Latin America is estimated to average 7.9 million barrels a day in 2010 and 8.61 million barrels a day by 2013.

This contrasts with an estimated 9.67 million barrels a day average oil production in 2009, down from 10.3 million barrels a day in 2001. Latin American oil production is set to rise to 10.78 million barrels a day by 2014 but Bolivia would likely only play a small part in that overall picture, the study indicates.

Bolivia's declining performance in the energy industry is attributed by analysts in the capital to corruption, mismanagement and official indecision, as government policy has wavered between nationalization, relaxation of state controls and then re-nationalization.

Bolivian real gross domestic production in 2009 grew just 0.8 percent, down from 5.7 percent in 2008. The average annual GDP from 2010-14 would stay around 3.3 percent, an indication of the effect of restrictive policies at work in the country.

The oil and gas operations in particular have suffered under increasing state control, including re-nationalization.

"This means that the burden of development falls heavily on state-owned Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos and its remaining international oil company partners," the Research and Markets report said.

"We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 62,000 barrels a day by 2014," the report added. Amid declining production, however, consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2 percent to 3 percent a year to 2014.

Unless there is a drastic policy reversal, Bolivian oil production from 2009-19 could drop 2.7 percent.

The report attributed Bolivia's poor performance to state control, modest capacity and a less competitive environment.

"Chile is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings but a wide gap exists between the two that is unlikely to be bridged by Bolivia at any point in the near future," said the report.