Nigeria's oil war truce 'in danger'

PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria, Nov. 18 (UPI) -- A cease-fire in Nigeria's oil war appeared to be under threat Wednesday after army soldiers destroyed the home of one of their commanders. But to some observers, the episode was part of a bizarre pre-election ritual.

There was no word of any immediate retaliation by the rebels of the militant Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta. It declared an indefinite cease-fire Oct. 25 after a government amnesty in which thousands of fighters surrendered their weapons.

But MEND warned after Tuesday's raid on the home of Christian Don Pedro in southern Rivers state it "will not tolerate the continued harassment of communities by the Nigerian military and will take appropriate actions the next time any community in the Niger Delta is attacked."

Despite the efforts of the government headed by President Umaru Yar'Adua to bring an end to the four-year insurgency in the delta, the country's main oil producing zone, analysts believe that a lasting peace remains uncertain at best.

Earlier attempts to negotiate with the leaders of MEND have all foundered on rebel charges of broken promises by the government to provide the impoverished tribes of the delta with a more equitable share of oil revenues.

However, this time around the government is faced with the fact that the insurgent attacks on oil fields, pipelines, storage centers and other oil installations have slashed national production by one-third -- from 2.6 million barrels a day in 2006 to around 1.7 million now.

But another imperative from the government's point of view is elections for president, state governors and local government positions scheduled for April 2011.

Some observers say the government has a hidden agenda in seeking to restore oil production and the revenue it provides.

The government has offered to allocate 10 percent of its oil revenue for the troubled delta. But critics say the money, far from appeasing impoverished tribes of the swampy region and buying off the rebels, will only disappear into the notoriously corrupt bureaucracy.

According to experienced observers of Nigeria's corrupt political system, there is a bizarre symbiosis between the militants and the political machine that appears to be entirely acceptable to all concerned.

It has often transpired that the political machine has manipulated the insurgents, funding and recruiting them before elections to eliminate rivals in the ruling People's Democratic Party.

And the militants go along with this astounding procedure, since it provides them with funds and influence, which filters down the food chain.

The raid Tuesday by the army's Joint Task Force, a special military force that operates in the delta, was widely seen as part of the negotiating process now under way between the militants and government in the capital, Abuja.

The campaigns to win nominations for the various federal elections begin at least 18 months before the polling dates. The ruling PDP and the opposition parties will have their conventions in December 2010.

Part of the campaign process is to hire militants to conduct the strong-arm side of things, and that includes attacking energy industry installations for the purpose of coercing the oil companies into paying protection money that goes into the war chests of the candidates' organizations.

Indeed, the process is sufficiently predictable that according to some political analysts, MEND may not take to the warpath again until late January so that political cliques can plan their campaigns.

In the meantime, the large-scale theft of crude oil continues unabated -- probably carried out by many of the militants who are now observing a cease-fire.

Criminal networks in the delta can earn millions of dollars a day by stealing large quantities of crude from pipelines, a process known as "bunkering."

According to a recent government report, up to 300,000 barrels of crude a day is being stolen, loaded onto tankers and shipped abroad and sold on the international market. Some of the proceeds reportedly end up with government officials.

The cease-fire does not appear to have had much effect on kidnapping, a tactic employed by the militants and criminal gangs.

More than 500 people have been abducted for ransom this year, up from 358 in 2008. Almost all were in the delta region.

MEND began snatching oil workers three years ago, and that became so lucrative that criminal groups now do it, too. The number of kidnappings usually rises sharply when the army moves against the "bunkering" gangs.