Nigeria's president insists oil war over

LAGOS, Nigeria, Oct. 16 (UPI) -- President Umaru Yar'Ardua insists that Nigeria's oil war with insurgents in the southern Niger Delta is over after an estimated 8,000 men surrendered under a three-month government amnesty.

But long-time observers caution that if the government fails to provide the jobs and training programs promised under the amnesty that expired Oct. 4 they would inevitably return to violence -- as they have done in the past.

In the meantime, the main rebel force, known as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, announced Thursday that it planned to resume its operations against foreign oil companies when a cease-fire it declared in July expired at midnight.

However, there were no immediate reports of any new attacks Friday. That raised expectations that MEND had been seriously weakened by the defections during the 90-day cease-fire. These included at least three key commanders.

Yar'Ardua appeared confident that the five-year conflict was finally over.

He reassured a visiting delegation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Wednesday that peace had returned to the Niger Delta, the heart of Nigeria's oil industry.

"We are now in the process of implementing a post-amnesty program and everybody is now on board," a statement from his office quoted him as saying.

"The general amnesty I extended to all militants in the Niger delta has led to the laying down of arms and a return to peace. Our role in ensuring stability of the energy market has led to a win-win situation for all participants in the market."

The violence spearheaded by MEND, which has demanded a more equitable share of Nigeria's oil revenue for the impoverished tribes of the delta, has slashed the country's oil output by around one-third.

Nigeria's potential production capacity is 3 million barrels a day. But output was only 1.74 million barrels when the amnesty began, down from 2.6 million in 2006.

Indeed, production has not reached 2 million barrels daily since July 2008 because of the incessant attacks on the oil companies, including Chevron Corp. and ExxonMobil of the United States, ENI of Italy and Royal Dutch Shell.

Production edged up to 1.84 million barrels a day in September, when the amnesty and the MEND cease-fire were in effect, according to the International Energy Agency.

Now, according to Oil Ministry sources, Nigeria expects output to average 2.27 million barrels a day in 2011 and 2.44 million the year after.

Industry analysts remain skeptical that calm will prevail, although they believe that MEND has been weakened -- if only for the time being.

But they are hesitant about endorsing the government's upbeat line until they have a better idea of whether MEND, which has overcome setbacks in the past, has been finally neutralized or not.