UPI Energy Watch

IEA sees $100 oil by 2010

The International Energy Agency's chief economist Faith Birol said that oil prices will likely be near $100 per barrel between 2010 and 2015.

The Paris-based IEA is an energy adviser to 28 industrialized nations, domain-B reported.

Birol predicted that in 2009 prices would continue to fall and remain low, but will move up again after that, starting in 2010 when the economy is expected to begin recovering from the recession.

In the interim, however, the IEA suggests oil prices will register 60 percent losses, even as oil prices were pushed slightly higher following production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the outbreak of more hostile fighting between Israel and Hamas.

The global economic crisis has hurt investments in new development and production and caused demand to fall as well.

But after 2015, prices could be pushed as high as $200 based on supply crunches around the world.

Wall Street, including Merrill Lynch, is expecting oil to average about $50 per barrel in 2009. Deutsche Bank AG predicted $47.50, and Moody's Investors Service predicted $55 a barrel.

Indonesia's oil and gas revenue is up

The Indonesian government brought in $39.2 billion in oil and gas revenue in 2008, a steep increase over last year, The Straits Times reported.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said revenue from general mining rose mostly during the first half of the year when global oil, gas and commodity prices reached record-high prices.

"Oil, gas and the mining sector contributed 36 percent to the government's total revenue for 2008," Yusgiantoro said.

Indonesia's crude oil output also rose slightly, adding to the increase in revenue. The production there increased from 954,000 to 978,000 barrels a day this year.

Investment in oil and gas companies also increased, Yusgiantoro said, and is also expected to increase in 2009, particularly the second half of the year.

Turkey, Chevron discuss Black Sea oil

The Turkish Petroleum Corp. will begin talks with U.S. oil company Chevron regarding joint exploration for oil and natural gas off the Black Sea coast.

TPAO officials said they have been in contact with Chevron and will begin official negotiations in January, Tehran Times reported.

Chevron previously indicated it was interested in exploring for oil and gas off the Turkish coast of the Black Sea. If TPAO and Chevron reach an official agreement, Chevron would be the second U.S. company involved in oil exploration in the Black Sea region. TPAO previously signed a deal with Exxon Mobil Corp.

Turkey imports almost all of its oil, and so the government recently decided to encourage exploration for alternative sources of oil in the Mediterranean and the Black seas.

The Black Sea alone is estimated to hold more than 10 billion barrels of oil. That would be enough to meet all of Turkey's needs for the next 50 years.

In addition to U.S. oil and gas companies, TPAO Vice President Yurdal Oztas said he may be interested in working with Japanese companies as well.

In other news, TPAO was one of several companies allowed to bid in the second round of exploration license in Iraq today.

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Closing oil prices, Dec. 31, 3 p.m., London

Brent Crude oil: $36.82

West Texas Intermediate crude oil: $38.91

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(e-mail: energy@upi.com)