Analysis: U.S. nuke rebirth to block bombs

WASHINGTON, July 30 (UPI) -- The United States hasn't licensed a new nuclear plant in nearly three decades. Since then, the U.S. nuclear industry has virtually frozen. Manufacturers are fewer and focused on other products. Investors eye natural gas and coal plants to supply a growing need for domestic electricity.

But the U.S. government and businesses should look abroad for motivation to reinvigorate the nuclear industry at home, said John Kotek, executive director of the American Council on Global Nuclear Competitiveness.

There's money to be made, but, more importantly, he argues, if the United States isn't assisting countries in developing and maintaining their nuclear programs, they will look elsewhere, possibly to the detriment of U.S. non-proliferation efforts.

"The best example is look at what's going on in the Middle East right now. You've got many nations -- Egypt is one that we've all heard about -- that are taking a serious look at building nuclear plants to meet their own future electrical demand," Kotek said.

"Most other nations that use nuclear energy right now started out by turning to another nation to get help. If the U.S. has a strong domestic capability and a strong domestic industry, we can be the country that those nations turn to to get their civilian nuclear power programs started, and as we do that we can influence the ways that they treat issues of non-proliferation and also nuclear safety."

A recent report issued by the Council says the less of a player the United States becomes in the global nuclear sphere, the weaker it will stand in the market. If it moves from supplier to importer, "the ability of the U.S. to influence non-proliferation policy will diminish."

Currently, 104 reactors supply about 20 percent of U.S. electricity demand. The last was licensed in 1978. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects applications for around 30 more over the next few years as demand for power increases and the cost of fossil fuels rises in price and uncertainty.

Worldwide, 438 nuclear reactors in 30 countries provide 16 percent of electricity demand, according to the World Nuclear Association, which estimates that demand will double between 2004 and 2030.

According to WNA data, reactors are under construction, planned or proposed in Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey and Vietnam, among others. The Gulf Cooperation Council -- a coalition of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait -- is also looking into a joint nuclear program. Nigeria announced earlier this month it will look that way as well. Most of these countries will enter the sector for the first time.

While a nuclear reactor itself isn't a proliferation risk -- even the International Atomic Energy Agency says there's no evidence the Bushehr plant in Iran poses a threat -- the easy transition from a civilian to military nuclear industry creates a slippery slope.

Nuclear suppliers do set guidelines for what can be done with their supplies, both technology and material, especially the fuel that can be used for both reactors and weapons with the right know-how.

"If you have the best technology, nations are likely to want to go where they can get the best product," Kotek said. "There needs to be something in it for them. If it were a choice you could go to the U.S. and get not as good of a technological product and you have to deal with all these restrictions, why would you come here?

"It's very important that the U.S. nuclear industry get back into a position of strength so that we're in a position that countries want to work with us and are willing to accept the restrictions that we place on certain uses of our nuclear technology," he said. Aside from adding U.S. influence in the non-proliferation arena, Kotek said it will give the United States the chance to impart nuclear safety techniques.

The council's report urges the U.S. government to take action on a number of fronts, all related to rebuilding the domestic industry.

"I think what you'll find is that there are a lot of capabilities that exist out there to do nuclear manufacturing, but those capabilities have been applied in different areas in recent years," Kotek said. "Right now it's being applied in areas such as some work for the Navy, work for the fossil fuel industry, so there is some retrofitting and retraining that is required, but it's not exactly the same as starting from scratch."

While the industry must invest in facilities and train personnel, he said, "the industry is looking to the government for some certainty that in fact there will be new nuclear plants constructed in the U.S., and for that reason I think it's important we have a stable and supportive government policy toward nuclear."

He applauded government efforts at subsidies for and research investment into new nuclear technology but warned against wavering in that support. "When you're talking about making investments in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars to restore capabilities, that sort of thing gives you pause.

"There are a lot of signs out there of companies that are willing to make some investment because they see a global market growing, but I think that you'll see an even greater investment if they see a strong domestic market," Kotek said. "I think manufacturers can certainly build here and sell abroad. I think it's better if you have a strong domestic market."

Aside from restoring domestic nuclear energy research, construction and sales -- both domestic and abroad -- the council is urging the government to find a solution to handling nuclear waste. The current prerogative to store the spent fuel inside Yucca Mountain in Nevada is on track to be more than 20 years behind schedule and not guaranteed to open at all.

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