Analysis: Nigeria readies for elections

Violence and militancy in Nigeria, particularly in the oil-rich Niger Delta, continues to hamper petroleum production and threatens to disrupt upcoming presidential elections, analysts and experts say.

In just the past few days, at least 10 people were killed in an around Port Harcourt, the main city in the delta where some 2 million barrels of oil are produced a day, according to independent estimates.

Dozens of kidnappings since the beginning of the year by armed militants have prompted foreign oil firms to evacuate thousands of workers and shut down several operations, hampering production nationwide by at least 20 percent.

Despite the growing unrest, some officials say the worst is over for Africa's No. 1 oil producer and that the country is poised to rebound from last year's loss of revenue due to the unrest.

"There is reason to believe the worst is over," said Nigerian Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru during a recent meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Greece. "It is a very, very temporary thing."

Those comments appear to belie the growing militancy in the Niger Delta, where most of Nigeria's 2.1 million barrels per day are produced and armed gunmen regularly storm foreign oil installations and take hostages.

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo shares his minister's optimism, telling officials and foreign oil representatives last month the situation was becoming more controllable.

Unlike his predecessors, Obasanjo has shown himself to be less interested in looting Nigeria's state oil coffers. Still, nearly 60 percent of the country's 130 million people live below the poverty line, according to a World Bank survey. With more than $300 billion in oil revenues since the 1970s, it is hard to see where the money has gone.

The Nigerian leadership has made some strides in curtailing the theft of state funds and promoting more transparency, World Bank officials in a recent review of the country's finances.

Obasanjo said Nigeria was intent on gaining control of the region to improve oil production while making some inroads into improving the lives of its inhabitants. In August, he vowed to crack down on the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta, the main armed rebel group, hoping it would demonstrate the government's commitment to tackling the violence.

Those efforts have not netted visible results, noted a U.S. State Department official.

"The Nigerian government isn't getting a handle on the situation," an official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told United Press International. "And the anticipation is that this isn't going to get better."

International human rights groups called Wednesday for Nigerian officials to investigate violence in the delta and a rash of recent attacks on anti-corruption advocates.

"The assault and death threats against one of Nigeria's leading human rights campaigners should be investigated immediately," said Peter Takirambudde, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. "These attacks threaten free speech on key issues like governance and corruption during the critical pre-election period."

Among those accused of perpetuating violence in Nigeria is MEND, which calls for greater profit sharing.

The group also has been blamed for costing Nigeria between 600,000-900,000 bpd in production losses, somewhere between 20-40 percent of the country's total production potential, analysts say.

Peter Lewis, director of the Africa Studies program at John Hopkins University, said that with $50 billion in oil revenue reported last year, there is a "gross disparity between the country's potential ... and the amount the government is delivering for social services."

That government, meanwhile, faces a difficult challenge in the weeks ahead, with presidential elections scheduled for April and some candidates allegedly turning to the militants to drum up voter loyalty, even if it is by force.

Oil and revenue use from petroleum tops most candidates' lists of issues and will likely be used as campaign rhetoric by aspiring leaders.

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