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Oil stages meager rally attempt

Oil markets try again after Monday's downfall.

By Daniel J. Graeber
Oil markets search for trajectory after a series of reports indicate short-term trends still favor the supply side. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI
Oil markets search for trajectory after a series of reports indicate short-term trends still favor the supply side. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI | License Photo

NEW YORK, Oct. 13 (UPI) -- Crude oil prices tried to stage a modest recovery in early Tuesday trading, though concerns about oversupply still nibbled on market trajectories long term.

Crude oil prices crashed Monday after a report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that, while output from U.S. shale basins was on the decline, member states were still producing at a record clip.

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Oil started the trading day Tuesday by moving marginally higher in pre-market trading, but fell short by the opening bell on Wall Street. Brent crude moved below the psychological threshold of $50 per barrel to gain barely a fraction of a percent to $49.94 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil prices, mirrored Brent's momentum, moving modestly lower to start the day at $47.05 per barrel.

Oil prices got some support by long-term forecasts from Swiss global financial services company UBS, which bucked widespread sentiment by predicting a rebound for crude oil prices.

Writing for CNBC, Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS Wealth Management, said there's been a general economic improvement underway that suggested demand would return to the market.

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"The market is oversupplied, and oil may experience relapses on a short-term view," he wrote. "Nevertheless, it is reasonable to suppose that, a year from now, when we expect the oil market to be balanced, the Brent crude price may trade at $72 and WTI at $67."

Short-term dynamics, however, weighed on markets for the third week in October. The International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report it expects the oil market to favor the supply side moving forward.

"Global demand growth is expected to slow from its five-year high of 1.8 million bpd in 2015 to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2016, closer towards its long-term trend as previous price support is likely to wane," the Paris-based agency said.

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