Automatic Data Processing Inc. said this week there was still some life in the old U.S. economic recovery.
On Friday, the Labor Department confirmed just that, but the operative word was "some."
There is a tremor left, maybe. Put another way, this recovery needs CPR to get back to its heyday. But it was never that strong a recovery in the first place.
January through April saw about 175,000 jobs added to the economy each month, but the unemployment rate barely moved. So many workers had given up looking for work that jobs becoming available enticed long-term unemployed workers back into the workforce. It was hope's evil sidekick -- as soon as there is food, more hungry people appear. In the employment sector, more jobs meant more people returned to looking for work and unemployment remained stubbornly high.
Then there's the simple truth that 175,000 jobs per month simply is not enough. Each month, tens of thousands of graduates or simply those turning 18 enter the workforce, an inexorable force of demographics. The best way to reduce the unemployment rate these days seems to be to have the baby boomers retire and let the smaller workforce in its wake enjoy the job openings the boomers leave behind.
The Age of Enlightenment worked that way. Along comes the plague and that brings death and prosperity. It's an odd combination, granted. But suddenly there was so much farmland under cultivation and a lot fewer mouths to feed. Such a deal. With food plentiful, there was more time to go to school, to write books, to invent things.
Following a paltry addition of 54,000 jobs in May, ADP said 157,000 jobs were added to the economy in June, led once again by small businesses that added 88,000 jobs while businesses with 50 to 499 employees added 59,000. Larger firms, those with 500 or more workers, added 10,000 jobs.
The Labor Department report, which includes government jobs, was far more dispiriting. In June, the department said, 18,000 jobs were added to the economy -- barely a ripple, in other words.
That doesn't mean that nothing is fixed but that certainly defines the problem well. Small firms tend not to be mega-manufacturing companies and sure enough, follow the big money and you'll end up in Beijing, where wages and jobs are doing well.
Arguably the U.S. jobs are not scarce, they are just overseas.
The housing market is not supporting the construction sector; regulations, like them are not, are not supporting expansion for big oil. The financial sector? Can you say write-off?
Healthcare is the bright spot. That sector did not experience a recession at all. It is no coincidence that medical bills did not go through a recession, either. Someone has to pay the bill for the increased number of technicians, nurses, physical therapists and healthcare administrators.
Who? The patients, that's who.
In international markets Friday, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.66 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China gained 0.13 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 0.87 percent and the Sensex in India fell 1.15 percent.
The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia added 1.07 percent.
In midday trading in Europe, the FTSE 100 index rose 0.27 percen, while the DAX 30 in Germany rose 0.56 percent. The CAC 40 in France was flat, up 0.06 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.4 percent.
