The deal breaker

Once again, all eyes are on Greece.

OK, that's not entirely true. On the front page of The Wall Street Journal Tuesday morning are four articles with the word Greece in the headline and seven articles with China in the headline. Granted, online formats allow for readers to scroll past more headlines than an old-fashioned purchase at the newsstand.

At The New York Times, one article on Greece and one on China and Britain agreeing to $2.2 billion worth of business deals, a one-to-one ratio. At The Washington Post, one article on the general strike in Greece and one on Washington's struggles to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by Aug. 2,

Across Greece, strikes are planned for Tuesday and Wednesday to hammer home the obvious: The man and woman on the street are not in favor of the next round of budget cuts and tax hikes that add up to $40 billion in savings and tax revenues.

From a separate perch, bondholders are committed to seeing the austerity measure pass Wednesday's vote that has been set up as a deal breaker. Passing the measure in parliament means Greece would qualify for the next tranche of a $155 billion international aid package and, as a bonus prize, by Sunday the European Union would be ready to announce a second bailout program, perhaps as large as the first, that would help ease Greece's $467 billion debt burden.

One way or another, the Journal points out, Greece is scheduled to hold a yard sale of government assets to raise an additional $71 billion, if possible.

Quick math: Twice $155 billion plus $71 billion equals $381 billion, which would be the bulk of the $467 billion debt load.

More quick math: Where is the revenue?

For more than a year, the focus of financial leaders has been financing a bailout and keeping Greece form falling into default in strategies that resemble a driver "steering over the hood," as they say. Long term revenue -- helping Greek farmers, exporters and the tourist trade -- is far off the radar screen, a discussion nobody cares to have today -- except, as it happens, the New Democracy party, the largest opposition party in Athens.

Investors are focused on the short term, on the potential losses that could implode if the Greek parliament fails to pass the budget amendment Wednesday.

No headlines in the Journal, Times or Post on Tuesday mention Portugal, Ireland, Italy or Spain, but lurking in the shadows is precisely that: A fear that panic will spread beyond Greece if the vote in parliament goes the wrong way.

The implications are clear and not original to this column: The vote in Greece Wednesday could turn out to be very much like watching the U.S. Treasury Department meeting in which it was decided not to help Lehman Brothers in 2008 -- a massive decision either way.

In international markets Tuesday, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.74 percent while the Shanghai composite index in China was flat, rising 0.04 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong added 0.09 percent while the Sensex in India rose 0.43 percent.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.28 percent.

In midday trading in Europe, the FTSE 100 index in Britain gained 0.85 percent while the DAX 30 in Germany rose 0.35 percent. The CAC 40 in France added 1.25 percent while the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.58 percent.