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Whiplash

Friday's job report from the U.S. Labor Department is likely to show a negative balance for June with a rise in the unemployment rate, economists say.
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Published: July 2, 2010 at 9:38 AM
By ANTHONY HALL, United Press International
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Friday's job report from the U.S. Labor Department shows 83,000 private sector jobs added in June, but a net loss, overall, of 125,000 positions.

The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent with the figures swayed primarily, for the second consecutive month, by temporary Census 2010 jobs, which are window-dressing in the grand scheme of things. Temporary jobs do not buck up an economy much. Making mortgage payments for two months is nobody's concept of a solid recovery.

The more pertinent dynamic can be tracked by glancing at stock markets, visible like muddy footprints through the kitchen, given the nosedive stocks have taken since early May, when Greece and public debt became linked together inexorably.

Greece can't be blamed for the series of punches the U.S. economy took recently with weak data coming from automakers, the housing market and manufacturing. Two weeks ago, the words "double-dip" flared up again. This week investors were quoted with predictions that a bear market was upon us.

For all the gains of the past year, there is ample cause to worry again. Even China said manufacturing growth had slowed, after which oil prices took a quick hit. In Britain, there is worry wholesale cash is drying up, making mortgages harder to find. Bank of England policy decisionmaker Adam Posen warned that "the renewal of a severe recession if not outright deflation," was a real possibility.

The job report is likely to show corporations are not hiring, as they tend not to do when the Dow Jones industrial average falls 10 percent in one quarter and the Standard & Poor's 500 falls 12 percent in the same period.

With a federal tax credit dried up -- although some in Congress are attempting to revive it -- pending home sales plummeted in May, the National Association of Realtors index falling 30 percent in the month compared to April. If that wasn't enough, contract signings fell 15.9 percent lower than May 2009.

Automobile sales in June were ahead of sales a year ago, on an average of 14 percent or so among major companies, but down from May to June at General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC, Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.

Among U.S. manufacturers, a similar bend in the road. The Institute of Supply Management's headline index showed positive growth for the 11th consecutive month, but growth has slowed two months consecutively, with the headline index dropping from 60.4 to 59.7 a month ago and dropping to 56.2 in June.

"Expectations have been that the second half of the year will not be as strong in terms of the rate of growth, and June appears to validate that forecast," said Norbert Ore, head of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Where Greece and the United States are on the same page is that the fear of runaway debt is dictating a pullback from stimulus policies and Republicans (mostly) on Capitol Hill are balking at extending unemployment benefits to millions. What links Germany, France, Ireland and Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Greece and Britain? In a word: whiplash. The stimulus spending, worldwide, now appears done. To the private sector, governments are now saying: "You're on your own. Best of luck."

In international markets Friday, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.13 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.38 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 1.11 percent and the Sensex in India dropped 0.28 percent.

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was flat, up 0.03 percent.

In midday trading in Europe, the FTSE 100 index in Britain gained 0.98 percent while the DAX 30 in Germany rose 0.62 percent. The CAC 40 in France rose 0.85 percent while the pan-European DJ Stoxx 50 added 0.54 percent.

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