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Analyst says 1-in-3 chance of federal government shutdown

June 21, 2013 at 3:49 PM

WASHINGTON, June 21 (UPI) -- A senior policy analyst says there is a 1-in-3 chance the U.S. government will shut down Oct. 1, the start of the new fiscal year.

"It is a slow-motion train wreck, which is the undercard for the debt ceiling negotiations shortly thereafter: [The fourth quarter] is going to be a bumpy ride with increasing D.C. macro-policy risk," Chris Krueger, a senior policy analyst at Guggenheim Securities LLC, told MarketWatch.com in an interview published Friday.

Lawmakers have 20 legislative working days before leaving Washington for summer break. Congress leaves Washington in early August and won't return until Sept. 9.

The last time Republicans and Democrats reached a stalemate over fiscal policy was in August 2011, MarketWatch.com said. Growth stalled, financial markets tanked and the Federal Reserve conducted a second round of quantitative easing.

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