U.S. economic growth outlook improves

WASHINGTON, April 18 (UPI) -- The outlook for U.S. economic growth is improved thanks to more people working and spending, a survey of economists and policymakers indicated Monday.

The gross domestic product, nation's total value of goods and services produced, when adjusted for inflation will likely grow more than 2 percent this year, 94 percent of panelists told the National Association for Business Economics in response to a quarterly survey

About 38 percent said it would likely grow more than 3 percent, nearly double the 20 percent who ventured that belief in January, the association said.

The percentage of respondents expecting inflation-corrected GDP growth of 2 percent or less fell from 17 percent in January to 5 percent this month.

The GDP is the single most comprehensive indicator of the economy's health.

Employment prospects also increased slightly, with the association's "net rising index," or NRI, reflecting the percentage of respondents forecasting increases versus those forecasting decreases, up a point to 36 this quarter -- a high in the survey's 12-year history of the question, the association said.

No respondents said they expected employment to drop in the next six months due to significant layoffs, only from attrition.

Strong hiring expectations were reported by the goods-producing, service and finance, insurance and real estate sectors, the survey indicated.

The transportation utilities, information and communications sector improved from a minus-7 to zero, as respondents "returned to a neutral employment outlook," NABE said.

Sales increased sharply the first three months of the year, with 63 percent of respondents reporting higher sales than in 2010's last quarter -- the largest percentage since 1994.

Nine percent reported a sales drop.

The service sector led the way in sales demand, with an NRI of 68, followed by the goods-producing sector at 53.

The transportation, utilities, information and communications sector recorded a 45 NRI, up from last quarter's 23, and the finance, insurance and real estate sector had an NRI of 44.

At the same time, panelists said they anticipated the North Africa and Middle East political turmoil and the Japanese earthquake aftermath would cause raise costs, lower sales and in general "exert downward pressure on U.S. economic growth in 2011," the survey said.

The survey of 72 association members -- business economists and policymakers using economics in the workplace -- was conducted March 16-31.