Economist warns trade deficit could double

WASHINGTON, June 8 (UPI) -- A economist said Sunday the U.S. trade deficit is heightening the risk of recession, warning the current deficit could double under a prolonged recession.

Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, said the current trade deficit of $250 billion is nearly 5 percent of the gross domestic product and "is too large to be sustainable."

"Foreign borrowing to finance the deficit is about $50 billion per month," Morici said. "Debt to foreigners now exceeds $6.5 trillion, and this flood of greenbacks abroad is driving down the dollar, heightening concerns about the solvency of U.S. financial institutions, pushing up the price of gold, and exacerbating the recession."

The economist said the weak U.S. dollar is driving U.S. exports, which in turn is helping the deficit somewhat. But, he said, while agricultural commodities are still doing well, the export surge in capital goods has stalled in the last three months.

"If exports are to significantly lift the U.S. economy from recession, this category will have to perform better," he said.