Leading economists say recession is here

WASHINGTON, April 29 (UPI) -- The U.S. economy has reached the point of being in recession, leading economists indicated Tuesday.

Of 52 economists surveyed in a quarterly poll, USA Today reported, two-thirds of them indicated the U.S. economy is in a recession.

The figure jumps to 79 percent when economists who believe the economy will shrink in 2008 are added in, the report said.

Many of those polled said they believed the recession wouldn't be severe. Unemployment could rise to 6 percen, but "that's pretty low for a recession," chief economist for the PMI Group David Berson told the newspaper.

Technically, a recession is defined by two consecutive shrinking quarters in the economy but many indicators can pile up to convince economists that a recession is in place without the economy contracting.

Inflation could slow if demand for goods falls but the future inflation rate -- measured at 4 percent in March -- elicits a range of opinions.

"Recessions usually bring inflation down," Berson said.

Economist at Decision Economics Allen Sinai told USA Today he thought otherwise.

"We think inflation will stay sticky high," Sinai said. "It's driven by forces outside the United States."