UCLA team says U.S. will avoid recession

LOS ANGELES, March 11 (UPI) -- Anderson Forecast Director Edward Leamer said Tuesday the strength in the job market and consumer spending indicate the U.S. economy would avoid a recession.

The Anderson team of economic professors at the University of California, Los Angeles, predicted the Gross National Product would fall 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2008, but then grow by 2.5 percent by the end of the year.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in economic growth. Several leading economists have declared that a recession has begun.

Leamer said the previous recession was marked by massive job layoffs. In this downturn, he says, unemployment will peak at 5.6 percent, up from this month's level of 4.8 percent. Manufacturing layoffs are "not in the same scope," this time around, Leamer told the Los Angeles Times.

Reflective of the job market, the Anderson Forecast says, the current housing slump is marked by people walking away from homes with declining value. In previous recessions, a lack of work drove people out of homes.

If consumers stop spending, a recession may arrive, Leamer said. For now, however, "we are holding firm. No recession this time," he said.