Morici says U.S. recession is on

COLLEGE PARK, Md., March 7 (UPI) -- Peter Morici, former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, declared Friday that the U.S. economy is in a recession.

Citing a loss of 63,000 payroll jobs in February after a loss of 22,000 jobs in January, Morici said in a statement, "poor jobs data are the strongest evidence yet that the economic expansion has ended."

"The economy has slipped into a recession of uncertain depth and duration," he wrote.

The government added 38,000 jobs in February, while the private sector lost 101,000. But, "businesses have become too pessimistic," about the government's ability to continue to add more jobs, he said.

The weakening dollar gives a lift to exports, but "not enough to lift industrial production and employment from recession levels," he wrote.

Morici said ethanol production is pushing food prices up as emerging markets demand more oil, adding to higher energy costs.

The federal stimulus package of $152 billion "is only about half as large as the losses taken by the major New York banks and their customers on subprime securities," he wrote.

The stimulus package and cuts in key interest rates are "too little and arrived too late to head off a recession," he wrote.