COLLEGE PARK, Md., Sept. 22 (UPI) -- A former U.S. international trade economist says the U.S. economic outlook appears to be quite robust, despite recent negative signals.
"Reports on the ground indicate capital equipment sales are strong, and commercial construction and public works are revving up," said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland. "The outlook for both producer durables and non-residental construction are very strong.
"The housing market may be slowing but disposable income keeps growing, month after month. The additional income people don't spend on housing has to go into either increased retail sales or more savings. With gas prices falling, even more disposable income is available and consumer confidence will buoy. Hence, I would bet on more retail sales than savings, and a stronger holiday season than retail chains expected. The only real question is whether retailers have stocked enough to meet demand," said Morici, former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
"Third quarter data may disappoint, because the direction of gasoline prices did not become evident until just before Labor Day. The fourth quarter should prove a winner. The economy will bounce sooner than many forecasters anticipate."