WASHINGTON, June 15 (UPI) -- Global hiring is on the upswing, including in the United States, where employers are maintaining their second-quarter hiring optimism going into the third quarter, according to a quarterly survey by outsourcing firm Manpower, Inc.
Without seasonal variations, survey results parallel those of second-quarter 2004 and indicate one of the largest year-over-year U.S. hiring increases in the survey's 40-plus-year history.
"The third-quarter survey data shows the strongest employment expectations in the United States, Canada, Hong Kong and New Zealand," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, chairman and CEO of Milwaukee, Wis.-based Manpower Inc. "Employers in many countries are echoing their intentions to hire just as optimistically as they did in our second-quarter survey. This is a good sign. Compared to a year ago, hiring intentions have improved in 16 of 19 countries."
Of U.S. employers polled, 30 percent said they expect to add employees to their payrolls in the third quarter, and 6 percent expect the number of employees to decline, resulting in a net employment outlook of 24 percent. The seasonally-adjusted outlook was 20 percent. (Fifty-nine percent of employers polled anticipate no change in hiring, and 5 percent were unsure.)
"In our second-quarter survey, U.S. employers reported the strongest employment outlook since early 2001. The fact that employers expect to hire at the same pace in the third quarter suggests that they continue to feel confident about the sustainability of demand for their products and services. This is good news for job seekers across the country," Joerres said.
"In last quarter's survey, we saw a significant improvement in employers' intentions to add staff. The survey data for the third quarter reveals good news for job seekers, as employers are telling us that they intend to continue hiring from now through September," Joerres said.
He added, "We are seeing continued strength in expected hiring activity for the Durable and Non-Durable Manufacturing and Construction sectors. Employer optimism in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector has improved significantly and steadily since the beginning of the year."
The U.S. employment outlook for third quarter remains the strongest since the first quarter of 2001, the study showed.
Employers in seven of 10 industry sectors polled plan to increase hiring from the second quarter (on a seasonally-adjusted basis). Education is the sector in which the biggest second-to-third-quarter hiring leap is expected. Sectors that expect hiring activity similar to the second quarter are Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services and Public Administration. Construction employers anticipate less hiring.
Notwithstanding these differences, all 10 sectors show much stronger hiring prospects than for third-quarter 2003, the study said.
Employment looks generally stable in the Americas, with some improvement in anticipated job prospects reported by Canadian employers over last quarter, and Mexican employers reporting steady but unchanged job prospects.
Regionally, Asia Pacific employers demonstrated the strongest year-over-year improvements in employer outlook, with Hong Kong and Singapore showing a steady growth trend for four straight quarters.
"Last year, the SARS crisis gripped the region, severely restricting travel and trade, which had an adverse affect on their labor markets. Employers are decidedly more optimistic this year," said Joerres.
In Japan, the outlook has improved substantially compared to last year at this time, although hiring is expected to drop somewhat in third-quarter 2004, following the hiring activity that normally occurs in Japan in the second quarter of each year. Hong Kong and Singapore have substantially improved since the second quarter survey, largely due to robust hiring in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector, the study said.
Across Europe, third-quarter hiring expectations hardly differ from second-quarter 2004. Employers in Ireland, Sweden, Spain and the United Kingdom held the most optimistic hiring outlooks. German employers expect no change in second-quarter hiring activity, and a hiring decline is expected in the Austrian labor market.
"The high number of layoffs seen in Germany last year seem to have stabilized and companies appear to be more optimistic than they were a year ago," said Joerres. "The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey shows 84 percent of German employers intend to hold on to current staff in the third quarter, which is a good sign for workers."
China's hunger for capital goods and the U.S. appetite for consumer goods are helping to fuel the recovery, said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
"China is a voracious buyer of capital equipment, and the United States has a voracious appetite for consumer products, and will offer great opportunities for producing countries like the United States and Japan, and Europe," Challenger said.
As for where the jobs are, "I think we're seeing significant growth in professional services, in energy, potentially in retail if the job growth that we've seen continues, health care are some of the strongest areas right now [in the United States] -- also raw materials, steel and mining and lumber -- there's so much demand coming out of China right now for that."
While the rising costs of energy are good for the energy industry, it could potentially hurt the overall job market. "During the last three months companies have been hiring -- the question is will that continue -- could the high cost of energy or health care cause companies to hold off hiring."
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with more than 35,000 public and private employers worldwide, and is currently available for 19 countries and territories: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.
