Stocks mixed amid geopolitical tensions

NEW YORK, Dec. 30 (UPI) -- Stock prices were mixed on Monday, ending up on the New York Stock Exchange and down on the Nasdaq Stock Market, with markets overall pressured by continued worries over geopolitical tensions.

The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average, which lost 128.83 points Friday, gained 29.07 points to close at 8,332.85.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index, which fell 19.58 points in the previous session, dropped 8.78 points to close at 1,339.53.

The broader New York Stock Exchange composite index added 2.66 points to close at 471.56 while the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 3.99 points to close at 879.39.

The American Stock Exchange composite index lost 0.66 points to 820.79.

Volume was 1.23 billion on the Big Board and 1.01 billion on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.

Analysts noted Wall Street is heading toward its first three-year losing streak since 1939-41, while the Dow is headed to its worst December performance since 1931.

Analysts said stocks dipped in lackluster trading, erasing modest gains, as investors debated their next step with geopolitical tensions heating up at the tail end of a brutal year for Wall Street.

Stocks had opened higher as investors nibbled at stocks after a string of declines, but the gains quickly fizzled.

Kristin Engelberger, vice president at Prudential Securities, said, "Geopolitical looms large, the holiday spending season saw an absence of spending, and a two-year high on crude oil prices represents something of a tax hike.

"On the geopolitical front, the countdown on Iraq continues, some diminution on the North Korean saber rattling, and no relief in the Venezuelan oil strike," she said.

Meanwhile, Ed Yardeni of Prudential is among the more constructive relative to 2003, projecting 10,500 for the Dow, and 1,100 for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

Engelberger noted that "Abby Cohen of Goldman projects 10,800 for the Blue Chip Index, and 1,150 for the S&P, while Tom McManus of Banc America is using 10,600 and 1,100.

"Yardeni sees corporate profits up 15 percent for the year, Cohen up 14 percent, and McManus up 10 percent, however, even the bulls see a back-end loaded year with most of the gains coming in the second half when capital spending kicks in," Engelberger added.

Also putting a damper on year-end investing, oil prices rose to a two-month high, helped higher by concerns over a conflict in Iraq and strikes in Venezuela.

Meanwhile, a new Securities Industry Association research report said that "the probability of strong gains in equity prices in the next year appears low, and confined to the most optimistic scenarios: peaceful disarmament of Iraq or a war speedily resolved and without major repercussions."

The report, written by SIA Research Director and Senior Vice President Frank Fernandez, said uncertainty engendered by the threat of war is visibly weakening an already stuttering economy.

It said the threat of a renewed recession of global dimensions persists and "is likely to occur if the war with Iraq (expected to begin in the first quarter of 2003) fails to prove short-lived and relatively benign in its effects."

Fernandez noted that major U.S. stock indexes are set to record their third straight annual decline -- "an unwelcome event not matched since 1939-1941."

He said no rapid retracing of past declines is expected in 2003. "Valuations remain high by historic standards, prospects for earnings growth appear subdued, at best, and uncertainty will continue to restrain investors for at least the first half of next year," Fernandez said.

Indeed, he added, "like the bear market of the 1970s, it may be many years" before major indexes recover to previous highs.

On the corporate front, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's biggest retailer and a Dow component, said its sales were strong during the Christmas week -- before and after the holiday.

Wal-Mart expects December sales at its U.S. Wal-Mart discount stores open at least a year to be up 3 percent.

Federated Department Stores, owner of the Macy's and Bloomingdale's chains, said it expects to report sales at stores open at least a year were off 2.5 percent in December, which is an improvement from the 7.4-percent decline in same-store sales in November. Overall, Federated said same-store sales for the two-month period likely fell 4.5 percent.

Analysts have said retailers had a tough holiday season because of the slow economy and a shortage of hot items.

And, global semiconductor sales for November rose 19.6 percent to $12.68 billion from $10.6 billion a year ago, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. Month to month, sales rose 1.3 percent from October.

"The November sales of the global chip industry underscores the healthy recovery that has been building momentum through out this year," said George Scalilse, president of the SIA.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury prices inched higher. The 10-year bond rose 4/32 to 101 22/32. Its yield, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, eased to 3.79 percent from 3.81 percent late Friday.

In Europe, stock prices ended higher in lackluster pre-holiday trading London, Frankfurt and Paris, lifted by some bargain hunting.

The London International Stock Exchange's blue-chip FTSE-100 index gained 45.3 points, or 1.2 percent, to 3,874.7. The German DAX index rose 52.63 points, or 1.9 percent, to 2892.63 and the French CAC-40 index added 13.31 points, or 0.4 percent, to 3,025.14.

Markets in France and Germany will be closed Tuesday and Wednesday for an extended New Year holiday. Trading will resume Thursday.

Earlier in Asia, prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended lower in a shortened trading session ahead of the long New Year holiday, pressured by weakness in high technology issues and Friday's declines on Wall Street.

Japan's blue-chip Nikkei Stock Average, which added 13.95 points Friday, fell 135.10 points, or 1.6 percent, to 8,578.95 -- its lowest year-end close since 1982. For the year the Nikkei lost 18.6 percent.

Markets in Japan will be closed on Tuesday and will reopen Jan. 6.

Analysts said the continued firmness of the yen on global foreign exchange markets also weighed on the market, triggering sell orders among some blue-chip exporters.

In the currency market, the dollar bought 119.94 yen. The U.S. currency has lost more than 8 percent against the yen since the start of this year.

The market's downside was, however, supported to some extent due to a lack of follow-through selling.

Elsewhere in Asia, prices fell to their lowest level since October on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index, which dropped 116.37 points during the previous session, dropped 172.93 points, or 1.8 percent to 9,272.33.

Analysts said the market fell as U.S. tension with North Korea and Iraq clouded the outlook for equities and a surging oil price sent airline shares tumbling.

Markets in Hong Kong will close at midday on Tuesday for the New Year holiday and reopen on Thursday.

Prices also dropped on the South Korean Stock Exchange as tensions escalated over the nuclear dispute with North Korea. The Korean Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, which lost 14.97 points during the previous session, dropped 29.37 points, or 4.5 percent, to 627.55.

North Korea said Sunday it hopes to settle the dispute over its decision to reactivate operations at a nuclear complex "in a peaceful way," but vowed it would not cave into U.S. pressure.

U.S. officials said over the weekend that Washington would seek support from its Asia allies and the United Nations to increase economic pressure on North Korea unless it abandons nuclear development. Friday, North Korea ordered out U.N. inspectors monitoring its main nuclear complex and the government announced it would restart a radiochemical laboratory at the complex that could be used to extract weapons-grade plutonium.

Market sentiment also was hampered by a planned strike by unionized workers at the Korea Stock Exchange, raising concerns about a possible disruption in corporate public disclosure.

South Korea's stock market will be closed Tuesday and Wednesday.

Prices also ended lower on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Weighted Price Index, which slipped 20.05 points Friday, dropped 89.57 points, or 1.9 percent, to 4,457.75.

Elsewhere around the Pacific region, prices lower on the Australian Stock Exchange. The blue-chip All Ordinaries Index, which lost 7.40 points during the previous session, dropped 30.90 points, or 1 percent, to 2,960.50.