World Bank cautions against global abuse

WASHINGTON, Aug. 21 (UPI) -- As world leaders prepare to gather in Johannesburg next week to discuss environmental issues, the World Bank reported Wednesday that while global economic output could quadruple by 2050, the population will be growing too, further straining global wealth.

"The world could have (an aggregate) gross domestic product of $140 trillion and a total population of 9 billion people, up 3 billion from 6 billion today.

"Without better policies and institutions, social and environmental strains may derail development progress, leading to higher poverty levels and a decline in the quality of life for everybody," the bank said in its annual World Development Report.

The growing population will increasingly shift to urban areas, so in 50 years, the world will largely consist of urban-dwellers, rather than rural inhabitants, who are currently the majority.

At the same time, the need for food -- and other resources such as energy -- will expand along with the population.

Although the fact that a fraction of the global population uses the bulk of the world's resources is widely known, the bank's vice president for the environment warned that such discrepancies wouldn't be sustainable over the longer term.

"Twenty percent of the population uses up 80 percent of all resources. That's not a sustainable number," said Ian Johnson.

He noted that the high-profile delegations attending the upcoming environment meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, should increase public awareness of longer-term global concerns.

For nine days from Aug. 26, the United Nations will host a conference to follow up on the environment meeting in Rio de Janeiro 10 years ago.

More than 100 heads of state and 50,000 delegates are expected to take part. The sheer fact that so many delegates are from the public sector, including British Prime Minister Tony Blair and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder among others, shows how much public environmental awareness has increased since the previous meeting.

The recent floods striking Europe and Asia have highlighted the need to increase vigilance of ecological matters that transcend national boundaries.

Private companies -- including major multinationals such as Mercedes-Benz and BP, which were largely absent at the Rio conference -- will be out in full force in Johannesburg, eager to seek partnerships with the public sector, with hopes of improving their images as environmentally friendly companies.

Yet, the problem with the World Bank's findings is that while the agency deftly identified possible risks, it was less able to pinpoint exact ways to reduce poverty and simultaneously protect the global environment.

For instance, while China has grown swiftly in recent years, the economic boom has taken a heavy environmental toll. Still, with the government taking steps, albeit slowly, some major cities such as Shanghai have seen their environmental quality improve over the past few years, the international agency noted.

But the question remains whether higher living standards can be achieved across the world without further harming the environment.

"There is no quick, easy solution," acknowledged Zmarak Shalizi, the World Bank's research manager for the environment.

"This is why we need to look at the issues on the longer-term horizon ... and there is a window of opportunity," he added.

Shalizi pointed out the need for governments to increase their commitment to ecological conservation.

"It takes time to build institutions," he said, "but there are institutional requirements" to ensure that the so-called green revolution takes root, making it possible to raise agricultural productivity and be socially responsible at the same time.