UPI Farming Today

U.S. farm economy likely to be secure

Farm interests in the United States likely will be "secure and in reasonably good shape" during the upcoming growing season, the Agriculture Department's chief economist said Thursday.

Keith Collins said agricultural export forecasts are holding steady -- about $54.5 billion during the 2002-03 marketing year, despite a strong dollar.

"The world and U.S. economies will get better," Collins said. "It will not provide that much of a demand boost."

In a study released Thursday, Collins said Wheat would be "the poster crop for tough sledding." Planted acreage in the United States has dropped significantly since 1988, but other countries also are suited for growing wheat, and they are increasing their production.

Russia, the Ukraine and other eastern European nations boosted their wheat output while India and Pakistan also gained their share of wheat exports.

"It's going to be a brutally competitive situation for U.S. wheat," Collins said, noting that average prices could drop below the $2.80 per bushel mark that was reached during the past marketing year.

For other crops, U.S. corn exports are expected to rise to over 2 billion bushels, with more than 78.5 million acres expected to be planted during 2002.

Oilseed use is growing at rates up to 4 percent per year, which means soybean export levels could reach records upwards of 1 billion bushels.

The corn market appears the strongest," Collins said, noting that efforts to boost ethanol production will help create markets for the crop as well.

Animal-related agriculture faces more challenges. But Collins said that much of the uncertainty caused following the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon have been eased because there have not been sudden outbreaks of animal disease in the United States.

"Generally, prices have moved up and receipts have grown faster than crops," Collins said. "Returns are mostly positive."

Bush not yet taking sides on farm bill

Agriculture Department officials said President Bush is "not drawing a line in the sand" over what would constitute an acceptable farm bill, even though he has cited problems with versions supported by Democrats.

Undersecretary of Agriculture J.B. Penn said the president is most concerned that Senate and House officials put aside their agriculture differences and reach agreement "before the Easter congressional recess."

Senate Democrats and House Republicans each have approved their own versions of a farm bill, with the Senate version calling for an extra $10 billion in agriculture spending.

Senate Agriculture Chairman Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, said he hopes the conference committee studying the issue can begin its work early next week.

Australian markets open to grape growers

Agriculture Department officials have reached agreement with Australia to permit California table grapes to be imported.

Under the deal, California table grapes will be allowed into Australia, provided they undergo a pre-clearance process while still in the United States. The Australian quarantine and inspection service will oversee inspection and fumigation of California grapes prior to their being shipped.

A review of all shipping procedures could take place after one year. California officials say grape exports to Australia could be worth about $10 million per year.

ADM to close Polish cocoa plant

Archer Daniels Midland Co. will close its cocoa processing plant in Poland come July.

The facility is in Koscian and has been owned by the Decatur, Ill., company since 1997. It will cease producing cocoa butter, powder and liquor July 15 but will continue to be used as a warehouse.

The closure is part of ADM's continuing review of all its manufacturing plants around the world, with less-productive facilities being shuttered to boost the company's profitability.

Scared cows produce less milk

A smack on the rump or a holler in the cow barn might not seem serious to the farmer but it could startle the cows and ultimately reduce milk production, according to a study published in Dairy Today magazine.

The study notes there can be as much as a 580-pound-per-cow-per-year difference in milk production, depending on how a farmer treats the cattle.

Anything from shadows, darkness, loud unpredictable noises or an overcoat left hanging in the "wrong" spot can startle cows. Purdue University animal scientist Edmond Pajor said that cows are descended from animals once hunted by other species, making them particularly susceptible to fear of unusual experiences.

Grains mixed on CBOT

Grain futures were mostly lower at the close Thursday on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybeans fell as many traders took early profits following late rallies on Wednesday. Also hurting prices was skepticism by traders that President Bush would be able to get Chinese officials to ease up on restrictions against genetically modified crops.

Corn was flat despite word South Korea is looking to purchase 104,000 tons of optional-origin corn. Word South Korea bought 54,000 tons from China also weighed heavily on the market.

Wheat fell on a lack of new information and negative pressure from soybeans.

Oats extended Wednesday's gains because of technical buying interest.

The prices:

Soybeans: Mar 4.44 off 1, May 4.48 off 3/4, Jul 4.52 1/2 off 3/4, Aug 4.53 unch.

Corn: Mar 2.06 3/4 unch, May 2.13 3/4 unch, Jul 2.20 1/4 up 1/4, Sep 2.26 1/2 unch.

Wheat: Mar 2.78 3/4 off 1 1/4, May 2.84 off 1 1/2, Jul 2.87 3/4 off 1, Sep 2.91 off 1 1/2.

Oats: Mar 2.25 up 8 3/4, May 2.02 up 6, Jul 1.74 up 5, Sep 1.45 up 1/2.