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Analyst: Oil near $50 not good for a freeze

Sharp losses in crude oil prices Tuesday erased in minutes on media reports of support for action.

By Daniel J. Graeber

ZURICH, Switzerland, Aug. 24 (UPI) -- The price point for crude oil that would likely trigger action from major oil producers is around $35 per barrel, a Swiss-based market research group said

The price for Brent crude oil has increased about 10 percent since Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih said "if there is a need to take any action to help the market rebalance," ministers meeting next month in Algeria would follow through with agreements.

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A previous proposal to freeze oil production at early 2016 levels collapsed along multilateral fissures as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-members fretted over market shares.

Olivier Jakob, the managing director at Swiss oil-market research group Petromatrix, said in an emailed report the current price point for crude oil was not supportive of extraordinary multilateral action in Algeria.

"We can envisage an agreement that under a certain price, OPEC nations would trigger a freeze but the price floor for action is much more likely to be at $35 per barrel than at $55 per barrel," he said.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, meanwhile, met in Vienna with Auday al-Khairalla, the Iraqi envoy to the United Nations, to discuss market dynamics. Barkindo said all eyes are on OPEC nations to see what actions could emerge in Algeria.

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"So we have to rise to the occasion," the OPEC secretary-general said.

Iraqi oil production in July increased more than any other OPEC member. Compared with the first quarter of the year, when freeze proposals first surfaced, crude oil production from Iraq is up almost 2 percent.

Crude oil prices started trading Tuesday sharply lower, but reversed course by almost 3 percent within minutes after media reports said Iran was considering some level of cooperation with its counterparts in Algeria.

"There is currently a race to print any freeze headlines but we have not yet seen strong substance behind them," Jakob said.

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